Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq mixed with retail sales, inflation data in focus

US stocks wobbled Tuesday, struggling to build on a broad tech-led rebound fueled by growing optimism that the Federal Reserve will deliver a rate cut next month as delayed economic data provided glimpses into consumer spending and price pressures.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) ticked 0.6% higher, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was roughly flat. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped 0.3%, after Monday’s session delivered a strong start to the holiday-shortened trading week.

Stocks are looking to keep up the momentum that saw the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) surge in its best day since May, as tech megacaps snapped back from a bruising stretch. But even with Monday’s bounce, the major US indexes are on pace for monthly losses as investors reassess sky-high valuations in AI and growth stocks.

On Tuesday, shares of Nvidia (NVDA) came under pressure after The Information reported that Meta (META) is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips. The Alphabet-owned company’s (GOOG, GOOGL) challenge to Nvidia’s dominance helped push the chip heavyweight’s stock over 4% lower. That dragged on the broader market despite gains for Alphabet and for Alibaba (BABA), after its AI-spurred quarterly earnings beat.

Meanwhile, investors are keeping close watch on the Fed. Markets are now pricing in a more than 80% probability of a quarter-point interest-rate cut in December. Bets on a cut jumped after Fed governor Chris Waller added fuel to the fire, joining a chorus of policymakers advocating an easing in rates.

Shutdown-delayed data released Tuesday did little to shake that faith. US retail sales rose in September, though the jump was less than forecast. Meanwhile, a look at wholesale inflation from the same month showed producer prices rising 0.3% month over month, matching expectations but representing a bump from a surprise decline in August. Year-over-year PPI also rose to 2.7%.

On the earnings front, retailers Kohl’s (KSS) and Best Buy (BBY) are on Tuesday’s docket and among the highlights in a holiday-shortened week. US markets will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving and will operate on a reduced schedule on Friday, shutting at 1 p.m. ET.

LIVE 13 updates

Oil and natural gas prices fall on Ukraine/Russia peace plan progress, milder winter outlook
Prices on crude oil and natural gas fell on Tuesday as negotiations over a potential peace plan between Ukraine and Russia seemed to advance forward and weather projections showed a milder-than-expected winter.
Futures on Brent crude (BZ=F), the global oil benchmark, fell by 1.9% to trade below $62 per barrel, while futures on US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil (CL=F) fell 2% to trade below $58. Both crude products are down 5% over the past five trading sessions.
Oil tumbled in the early hours of Tuesday morning after reports from ABC News that Ukraine has agreed to the terms of a revised peace plan that would move Ukraine and Russia toward an end to their now years-long conflict. US officials have been pushing Russia to agree to the plan as well during talks happening in Abu Dhabi, ABC News reported, but it is unclear where Russia’s Vladimir Putin stands on the proposal.
Progress toward a peace deal over the past week has also sent natural gas prices downward on the potential for a lift in sanctions and renewed natural gas flows that boost an already loosening market. Futures on natural gas (NG=F) fell by 5.9% Tuesday morning to trade below $4.40 per million British thermal units.
Prices on the hydrocarbon have also been hurt by a more bearish outlook on winter weather, with data predicting a milder winter than previous predictions had signaled.
Strong levels of US natural gas production have also weighed on prices. Dry gas production is now set to reach an average of 107.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in 2025, up from an average of 103.2 bcf/d in 2024, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration.
With calls for a harsher-than-normal winter easing and progress in Ukraine, Europe’s benchmark natural gas futures contract hit its lowest price since May 2024 on Monday.
Stocks waver at the open
US stocks wobbled at the market open Tuesday as a drop in Nvidia (NVDA) shares weighed on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC).
The Nasdaq fell 0.4%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) traded roughly flat. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), which includes fewer tech stocks, added 0.5%.
Wholesale inflation ticks up 0.3% in September
The delayed September Producer Price Index (PPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was finally released on Tuesday, showing wholesale prices picked up during the month in what is one of the Fed’s last inflation readings before its December meeting.
PPI showed prices paid by companies increased 2.7% year over year. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.3% in September after declining 0.1% in August. On a “core” basis, which excludes food, energy, and trade services, prices edged up 0.1% after rising 0.3% in August.
While the data was delayed due to the government shutdown, it was seen as a crucial piece to the Fed’s decision making, as officials remain split on whether to prioritize getting inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target or cut rates to bolster the labor market.
And since the BLS will not be releasing the October Consumer Price Index report, the central bank will be meeting in a data fog.
On Tuesday morning, traders were betting on an 82.9% chance the Fed lowers interest rates by 25 basis points at its next policy meeting, according to CME FedWatch, slightly below the 84% odds they had priced in the day before.
US retail sales rose less than forecast in September
US retail sales slowed in September as investors got the first official glimpse of consumer spending in two months on Tuesday morning after the government shutdown halted a wide swath of economic data.
Headline retail sales climbed 0.2% in September, below economists’ expectations of a 0.4% month-over-month increase. By comparison, sales rose 0.6% in August, according to Census Bureau data.
The control group, which excludes several volatile categories and factors into the gross domestic product (GDP) reading for the quarter, decreased 0.1% following a 0.6% gain in August. Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected a 0.3% rise.
Sales excluding autos rose 0.3% from August to September, while sales excluding autos and gas increased 0.1%.
The report arrives at the start of a crucial holiday shopping season and carries added weight as investors and policymakers continue to operate without an official read on third quarter GDP, even with the shutdown now over.
On Monday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced it has canceled the advance Q3 GDP estimate and will reschedule both the second estimate and preliminary corporate profits, which were slated for release on Nov. 26.
Read more here.
Abercrombie & Fitch stock soars on earnings beat, guidance
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) stock soared in premarket trading after the retailer beat earnings estimates and raised the lower end of its full-year sales and profit guidance.
Shares rose by over 18% in premarket trading, but the stock remains down 56% year to-date.
The company’s Hollister brand drove the results, posting a 15% year-over-year sales increase, which offset a 7% sales decline for Abercrombie.
Overall, the retailer reported earnings per share of $2.36, compared to analysts’ estimates of $2.16, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Net sales reached $1.29 billion, also above estimates for $1.27 billion.
The company raised the lower end of its full-year outlook for net sales growth to a range of 6% to 7%, while net income per diluted share is expected to come in at $10.20 to $10.50. Previously, the company saw net sales growing 5% to 7% and net income in a range of $10.00 to $10.50.
Read more live earnings coverage here.
Good morning. Here’s what’s happening today.
Economic data: Retail sales (September); Producer price index (September); FHFA home price index (September); Richmond Fed manufacturing index (November); The Conference Board consumer confidence (November); Pending home sales (October); Dallas Fed services activity (November)
Earnings: Alibaba (BABA), Analog Devices (ADI), Dell Technologies (DELL), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Zscaler (ZS), HP Inc. (HPQ), DICK’S Sporting Goods (DKS), Burlington Stores (BURL), Best Buy (BBY), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Pony AI (PONY), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Kohl’s (KSS)
Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning:
DOGE’s legacy for Corporate America: Cut first, ask later
Nvidia stock sinks as Google challenges in AI chips
Trump signs ‘Genesis Mission’ order to boost innovation with AI
Trump, Xi speak for first time since trade truce
Alphabet’s rally is set to shake up tech leadership
Alibaba revenue beats as AI arm growth surges 34%
Treasurys slip on risk US data will show return of inflation
Bitcoin holds recovery from worst of sell-off, buoying traders
Best Buy lifts outlook as earnings beat forecasts
Best Buy earnings beat Wall Street’s forecasts, company raises outlook
Best Buy’s (BBY) shares rose 3% before the bell after the retailer’s third quarter results beat analysts’ estimates, and the company raised its full-year outlook on Tuesday.
The retailer, which is heading into the holiday season, said that its sales were driven by “strong results across computing, gaming, and mobile phones.”
Yahoo Finance senior reporter Brooke DiPalma looks into the latest earnings report from the retail chain.
Read more here.
Kohl’s shares soar as Q3 results beat expectations
Kohl’s (KSS) stock soared 23% before the bell on Tuesday after the retailer reported better-than-expected third quarter results. Both earnings and revenue surpassed Wall Street estimates. The retailer also increased its full-year outlook.
Investing.com reports:
Read more here.
The DOGE experiment might be over, but its legacy continues in corporate America
Yahoo Finance’s Hamza Shaban reports:
Taken to its extreme, the grand promise of AI for the enterprise is running a business without employees.
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) experiment brought this logic to the US government, a project run by the people for the people. The question DOGE asked was simple: How many people do you really need?
In the post-COVID era, executives leaned on euphemisms and “macroeconomic headwinds” as justifications for mass layoffs. The legacy of DOGE may see companies do away with that sort of contrived messaging.
DOGE opened the Overton window for any kind of manager — in the C-suite or in Washington — to perceive their workforce as too large. …
Recent layoffs at Amazon (AMZN), UPS (UPS), and Verizon (VZ) each came with their own company-specific reasons.
But the wave of corporate restructurings can be seen as part of a multiyear project — stretching back to Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter and now infused with the promise of AI-driven cost savings — that was further encouraged by the roughshod model of DOGE. Cut first, ask later.
Read more here in the takeaway from today’s Morning Brief.
Premarket trenders: Keysight Technologies, Broadcom and Spotify
Keysight Technologies’ (KEYS) stock jumped 14% during premarket trading on Tuesday. The electronic equipment maker forecast first-quarter revenue and profit ahead of Wall Street estimates on Monday.
Broadcom (AVGO) stock rose 2% before the bell on Tuesday amid optimism for its AI offerings and also on the back of its partnership with Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), which has been in place since 2016.
Spotify’s (SPOT) shares jumped 4% in premarket trading on Tuesday. The rise follows news that the Swedish audio streaming and media service provider would be increasing its prices in the US next year.
Alibaba rises after beating quarterly revenue estimates
Alibaba (BABA) stock rose 4% before the bell on Tuesday after the Chinese e-commerce giant beat analysts’ estimates for quarterly revenue, as investments in ‌one-hour delivery helped drive more users to its shopping apps,‌ while its cloud division reported strong growth.
Reuters reports:
Read more here.
Bitcoin faces 3 big problems as the cryptocurrency struggles to rebound
Yahoo Finance’s Ines Ferré and David Hollerith report:
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is struggling to gain momentum as it heads toward its worst month since June 2022.
As prices trade around $87,000 per token, or roughly 30% off their October all-time highs of more than $126,000, the cryptocurrency’s problems don’t appear to be easing.
And three key challenges for bitcoin have emerged as investors and strategists dig through the rubble of this month’s decline.
First, outflows of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for November have reached $3.5 billion, their largest since February. “That indicates that institutional investors have stopped allocating into bitcoin,” 10X Research founder and CEO Markus Thielen said. “These ETFs have turned into sellers, and as long as they keep selling, I think the markets will struggle to stay up, or rebound,” he said.
Another issue: Thielen pointed to a slowdown in stablecoin minting activity, a warning that could suggest less capital is entering the crypto ecosystem. …
The third challenge facing bitcoin: Long-term holders had already been selling into the downturn, possibly in anticipation of the token’s historical four-year cycle.
Read more here on what’s behind bitcoin’s slump.
Nvidia shares drop on news that Meta is in talks to use Google AI chips
Bloomberg reports:
Read more here.