MP Materials (MP), a cornerstone of America’s rare-earth industry, has been on a turbulent ride. Its shares peaked near the $100 mark in mid-October, fueled by fears of Chinese export restrictions, only to slide 3.57% over the past month as U.S.-China trade tensions eased. It now trades 39.7% below its 52-week high.
On Nov. 24, however, the stock staged a rebound, climbing 6.8% after BMO Capital (BMO) upgraded it from “Market Perform” to “Outperform” rating. It is the equivalent of “Buy” from “Hold,” even with a slightly reduced price target of $75 from $76. It underscores confidence in MP’s long-term strategic position despite short-term volatility.
The swing highlights a larger reality. China still controls roughly 85% of global rare-earth processing, leaving the U.S. exposed. MP’s stock swings reflect this geopolitical tightrope, suggesting that while near-term gains may be modest, the company remains central to America’s push for rare-earth independence.
Given the backdrop, the share price dip could be less of a warning and more of a potential window into a critical sector’s future.
Headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada, MP Materials is the only fully integrated rare-earth producer in the U.S. Its capabilities span the entire value chain, including mining, processing, advanced metallization, and magnet manufacturing.
With a market cap hovering near the $10.3 billion mark, the company plays a central role in powering electric vehicles (EV), renewable energy systems, robotics, defense platforms, aerospace technologies, and a wide range of electronics.
Year-to-date (YTD), MP shares have surged 290%, and the past six months alone have added another 196.8%. The momentum places the stock far ahead of the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) which gained 16.1% YTD and 15.1% over the same six-month stretch.
Coming to valuation, MP stock currently trades at 37.39 times forward sales, a premium to its industry peers and above its own five-year average. The elevated multiple suggests that investors could be pricing in robust long-term execution.
On Nov. 6, MP Materials released its Q3 2025 financial and operational results, which showcased softer revenue but stronger operational execution. Revenue fell 14.9% year-over-year (YOY) to $53.55 million, although the company still exceeded the Street’s estimate by 0.79%.
