Summary
This is the very quiet week between Christmas and New Years and trading volume is expected to be light. Barring a crash this week, 2025 has been a good one for equities. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.5%, the S&P 500 was up 2.3%, and the Nasdaq gained 2.5%. Year to date, the Dow up 14.5%, the S&P 500 17.8%, and the Nasdaq 22%. On the economic calendar, the minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be released on Tuesday. Turning to other data, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow measure calls for 3.0% GDP growth in the fourth quarter. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast forecasts a 2.6% inflation rate for December. Mortgage rates ticked lower last week, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now at 6.18%, according to FreddieMac. Gas prices were down six cents and are now at an average of $2.84 per gallon for regular gas. Looking ahead, the next FOMC meeting is on January 28. Based on the recently delayed economic reports, odds for a rate cut at this meeting are at 20%, according to the CME FedWatch rate tool. Taking a deeper dive into performance, U.S. stocks are lagging global stocks. A leading industrialized global stock market index, the ETF EFA, has surged over 27% year to date, while the leading emerging market ETF EEM has gained more than 30%. U.S. growth stocks, with a year-to-date gain of 18.5% (ETF IWF), have taken the edge over value stocks (ETF IWD), which have booked an advance of 15%. In other asset classes for the year to date, AGG bonds are up 3%, gold is up almost 75%, crude oil is down about 18%, and Bitcoin is off about 6%. The U.S. dollar is down almost 10%, tracking
