Nifty 50 (25,571) and Bank Nifty (61,172) gained 0.4 per cent and 1.6 per cent respectively last week. But both indices witnessed considerable volatility over the period. Here is our analysis of futures and options data of both. As February contracts are nearing expiry, we shall consider March contracts for analysis and trade recommendations.
Nifty 50
Nifty futures (March) (25,743), after opening with a gap-down last Monday, rebounded from the support at 25,600. But on Thursday, it fell off the resistance at 26,000. Nevertheless, it managed to close the week above the 25,500-25,600-demand zone.
This support band can restrict the downside. However, for Nifty futures to establish a sustainable rally, it ought to cross over the hurdle at 26,000. Once this happens, the contract can extend the upswing to 26,500. Although 26,250 is a minor resistance, we expect it to be breached if the bulls get past 26,000.
Supporting the bullish claim is the long build-up in March futures. As it gained 0.2 per cent last week, the outstanding open interest shot up from 16.1 lakh contracts to 56.1 lakh contracts.
Also, the Put Call Ratio (PCR) of March monthly expiry options stood at nearly 1.40 on Friday. A ratio greater than one is because of selling of relatively greater number of put options compared with call options. Traders sell puts when they hold a positive outlook.
The bullish view will be negated if Nifty futures breaches the support at 25,500. In such a scenario, the contract can quickly slip to 25,300. Support below 25,300 is at 25,000.
However, overall, Nifty futures has a support as per the chart and the derivatives data, too, shows a positive inclination. Hence, the probability for a rally is high.
Strategy: Buy Nifty futures (March) when it dips to 25,650. Place stop-loss at 25,400. When the contract rises to 26,000, tighten the stop-loss to 25,700. Book profits at 26,250.
Nifty Bank
Nifty Bank futures (March) (61,546), like Nifty March futures, opened last week with a gap-down on Monday. Following a similar recovery to that of Nifty futures, Nifty Bank futures bounced back with the help of the support at 60,500 and rallied.
On a weekly basis, Nifty Bank futures outperformed Nifty futures. This is due to the relative performance of these contracts towards the end of the week. Nifty Bank futures posted a weekly gain of 1.4 per cent compared to Nifty futures’ 0.2 per cent.
The chart shows that Nifty Bank futures (March) has notable support levels at 61,000 and 60,500. Below these is an important base at 60,000 and only a breach of this can turn the outlook weak.
As the March futures rose last week, the outstanding open interest ballooned from 1.5 lakh contracts to 8.5 lakh contracts. This denotes the arrival of fresh buyers. On the other hand, the PCR of March options stood at 1.40 on Friday.
Thus, the futures and options data indicate that the bulls are in a comfortable position. Even though Nifty Bank futures might see a dip, it is likely to be stopped at 61,000 from where it can establish a fresh leg of rally.
Strategy: Buy Nifty Bank futures (March) if it moderates to 61,000. Keep stop-loss at 60,150. When the contract rises to 62,250, alter the stop-loss to 61,800. Book profits at 62,800.
Note: Recommendations are based on the chart set-up and derivatives data. One should be very careful about the volatility the market could witness this week due to the tariff drama.
Stick to the levels mentioned, especially the stop-losses strictly. Even if you did not get trade entries based on our recommendations, you may stay out rather than chasing the market.
Published on February 21, 2026
