F&O Tracker: Support Lines On Trial

Nifty 50 (25,471) slipped 0.9 per cent last week whereas Nifty Bank (60,187) posted a marginal 0.1 per cent gain. The futures and options data of these indices are on different lines although the major trend with respect to chart is along the same direction. Below is an analysis.

Nifty 50

Nifty futures (February) (25,519) dropped by 0.8 per cent last week. After opening with a gap-up, it rose to mark an intra-week high of 26,068 on February 11 before moderating to the current level.

Although the chart shows that Nifty futures is experiencing considerable selling momentum, there is a notable support at 25,450. So long as this level holds, bulls will be in the equation.

However, if 25,450 is decisively breached, the outlook can turn bearish wherein the contract can see a quick decline to 25,000 and 24,750. That said, a rebound from 25,450 can lift Nifty futures to 26,000. A breakout of this will help the contract gain further traction and push towards 26,500.

The positioning in options show some weakness as the Put Call Ratio (PCR) of both weekly (0.5) and monthly (0.9) are below 1. A ratio less than one is because of selling of relatively greater number of call options, a bearish sign.

On the other hand, futures also show mild bearishness. As the contract dropped last week, the outstanding open interest (OI) saw an increase from 159 lakh contracts to 162 lakh contracts. This shows short build-up albeit at a small scale.

Overall, the bears seem to be in a better position. However, to take full advantage of the prevailing situation, they ought to drag Nifty futures below the support at 25,450.

Strategy: Retain the longs that we suggested on Nifty futures (February) at 25,650. Maintain stop-loss at 25,400. When the contract rises to 26,100, trail the stop-loss to 25,850. Book profits at 26,350.

Traders who bought 25,500-call (purchase price of ₹300) instead of futures, too, can hold on to the trade. The option closed at ₹211 on Friday. Target and stop-loss can be at ₹700 and ₹100 respectively.

Nifty Bank

Nifty Bank futures (February) (60,321) began last week with a gap-up. Post this, it inched up to mark an intra-week high of 60,920 on Thursday. While the contract stayed largely flat during the middle of the week, it fell considerably on Friday, erasing almost all the gains it made for the week.

Nevertheless, the contract managed to end the week above a notable support at 60,000, which is an important level from a short-term trend perspective.

So, going ahead, Nifty Bank futures may see a decline from the current level, possibly to 60,000. Then, the contract can see a rebound and rise to 61,300 in the near term. However, if the support at 60,000 is invalidated, the outlook can turn bearish. In such a case, we might see a quick fall to 59,500 first. A breach of this can take the contract further lower to 58,700.

The futures and options positioning are not very consistent with respect to Nifty Bank. The February futures gained by a marginal 0.1 per cent but then the outstanding OI dropped from 14.1 lakh contracts to 12.6 lakh contracts. This shows short covering i.e., some of the sellers exited.

On the other hand, the PCR of February options stood at nearly 0.9 on Friday, indicating that the bears have an edge over the bulls.

Broadly, irrespective of the current situation in derivatives position, traders should watch how Nifty Bank futures react to 60,000. As it is now above this level, we cannot reject the possibility of a recovery.

Strategy: Buy Nifty Bank futures (February) at 60,100. Target and stop-loss can be 61,300 and 59,700 respectively.

Instead of futures, one can buy February 60,000-call (₹646.35). Go long at ₹580 with a stop-loss at ₹250. Exit the trade at ₹1,400.

Published on February 14, 2026