Billionaire investor Bill Ackman reiterated his long-standing bet on Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC), naming the release of the mortgage giants as his “Best Idea for 2026.”
In a post on X Tuesday, Ackman highlighted his detailed post from exactly one year ago in which he outlined a path to end the 18-year federal conservatorship that has governed the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) since the 2008 financial crisis.
This was a good one. It remains our best idea for 2026.
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Ackman’s proposal centers on a pragmatic, three-step “walk before you run” strategy designed to stabilize the housing market while delivering a massive windfall to the U.S. Treasury.
Repayment Acknowledgment: Ackman argues the U.S. Treasury and the FHFA should formally acknowledge that the GSEs have fully repaid their initial $190 billion bailout. To date, they have returned over $300 billion in profits to the government.
Exercise Warrants: The government holds warrants for a 79.9% stake in both companies. Ackman proposes that the Treasury exercise these immediately, formalizing taxpayer ownership and creating a mark-to-market windfall he estimates at over $300 billion.
NYSE Relisting: Moving the stocks from the over-the-counter (OTC) market back to the New York Stock Exchange would provide the liquidity necessary for institutional investors to build positions.
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Ackman believes 2026 is the pivotal year for this “asymmetric” trade.
By relisting the entities, the Trump administration gains a three-year runway to finalize capital requirements and management structures.
Ackman projects that if Fannie and Freddie trade at 16x and 13x their estimated 2026 earnings, respectively, the shares could see an upside of 300% to 400%.
“The Big Short” investor Michael Burry shared a similar thesis in early December in which he suggested the government is preparing to re-privatize the giants via a massive IPO, potentially valuing them at $500 billion by 2026.
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Burry also described the Trump administration as eager to “get Big Homebuilders going” and stimulate the housing market.
