Glencore Goes Shopping Again, Copper in Hand

Glencore’s $260 billion tie-up with Rio Tinto fell apart, but the appetite for scale clearly did not. Chief executive Gary Nagle is still talking like a man who believes mining needs bigger platforms to matter in a copper-hungry world. If the mega-merger is off, the megaphone is still on.

Two weeks after merger talks with Rio Tinto collapsed, Nagle resurfaced with a familiar message. Consolidation still makes sense. Glencore will look at big deals. Shareholders, he suggested, want the company to remain open to transformative combinations.

The Rio discussions reportedly broke down over valuation. Under U.K. takeover rules, the two sides are now subject to a six-month cooling-off period, though that can be shortened under certain circumstances. In theory, that shuts the door. In practice, it leaves it ajar.

Alongside the M&A signaling, Glencore reported 2025 results that were solid but hardly spectacular. Adjusted EBITDA slipped to about $13.5 billion from $14.4 billion the year before, reflecting weaker coal prices that hit the energy and steelmaking coal division. The company remains one of the most profitable coal producers in the world, but when coal prices ease, earnings follow.

Metals were more supportive. Copper in particular helped offset some of the energy drag, aided by supply tightness and bouts of market dislocation linked to shifting US trade policy. Glencore also pointed to strong performance in its marketing division, which thrives on volatility and arbitrage.

The group announced roughly $2 billion in shareholder returns, reinforcing the idea that it can still generate meaningful cash without a mega-deal. It also highlighted progress on a land access agreement at its Kamoto Copper Company operation in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The deal is expected to extend mine life and support a broader plan to lift copper output meaningfully over the next decade.

So the message was twofold. The standalone case works. But the door to something much bigger remains open.

This is not just about corporate ego. It is about copper.

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Copper has become the mining sector’s golden ticket. It sits at the heart of electrification, grid expansion, renewables, electric vehicles, and the AI-driven data center build-out. Every macro theme investors care about seems to run through a copper wire somewhere. That gives copper producers narrative power.

If you are a miner with credible copper growth, you can sell a future. If you are heavy on bulk commodities or fossil fuels, you are selling cash flow today but struggling to command a long-term growth multiple. That is the strategic tension Glencore is trying to resolve.

The failed Rio talks were revealing because they exposed how wide the valuation gap is in a copper-obsessed market. Sellers argue that new supply is scarce, permitting is slow, grades are declining, and structural demand is locked in. Buyers counter that building and integrating assets in politically complex jurisdictions is risky, capex is ballooning, and governments increasingly see critical minerals as strategic leverage points.

That push and pull does not end consolidation. It just makes it messy. Deals become harder to price. Boards become more cautious. Shareholders demand clearer synergies and stronger balance sheets before signing off on headline-grabbing combinations.

Glencore’s own portfolio underlines why it is chasing optionality. It is both a future-facing copper story and the world’s most profitable coal miner. That duality throws off cash but muddies the equity narrative. Investors who want exposure to the energy transition do not always want exposure to thermal coal. A larger, more copper-weighted group would not just add production. It would reframe the story.

There is also the trading arm. Glencore’s marketing division can generate windfall profits when markets are dislocated, as they were during the energy crisis. In calmer conditions, it is steady but less spectacular. A bigger upstream copper base would smooth the earnings profile and tilt the investment case toward structural growth rather than opportunistic trading gains.

That said, Glencore does not need a megamerger to justify its valuation. It is returning cash. It is unblocking operational bottlenecks in the DRC. It is targeting higher copper output over time and argues that it can fund that growth internally. For many investors, that is enough.

Which makes the M&A rhetoric interesting. It functions like a call option. If the right asset or partner becomes available at the right price, Glencore wants the market to believe it will act. If not, it will keep compounding copper tonnes and sending cash back to shareholders.

Everything now orbits copper and confidence. As long as the metal remains central to the global growth narrative, consolidation will keep resurfacing as a strategic lever rather than a vanity project.

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