Global aid cuts could reverse health gains, warns new Lancet study

The drop in global aid could lead to 22.6 million additional deaths by 2030 across 93 low- and middle- income countries, including 5.4 million children under the age of five, warned Lancet Global Health in a new peer-reviewed study published on Tuesday by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal).

With support from The Rockefeller Foundation in association with its public charity RF Catalytic Capital, the analysis showed that Sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for 38 of the 93 countries analysed, is particularly at risk, and with 21 of the countries in Asia (including India), 12 in Latin America, 12 in the Middle East and North Africa, and 10 in Europe, including Ukraine, severe cuts to official development assistance (ODA) could be felt globally.

Research also reveals that over the course of 2002-2021, ODA helped reduce child mortality by 39%; prevent HIV/AIDS deaths by 70%, with a 56% reduction in deaths from both malaria and nutritional deficiencies; and increased additional global health outcomes in these 93 countries, which are home to 75% of the world’s population.

In 2024 international aid fell for the first time in six years, and the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Germany significantly reduced their ODA contributions for the first time in nearly 30 years.

These cuts, along with projected cuts in 2025 and 2026, sparked the need to understand what this could mean at the human level for communities all over the world, the research said.

“Our analyses show that development assistance is among the most effective global health interventions available,” said Davide Rasella, coordinator of the study, ICREA Research Professor at ISGlobal and at the Brazilian Institute of Collective Health.

“Asia’s scale means that when health systems fail, the human cost is immense, and in 21 countries across the region, decades of development gains are now at risk of being reversed,” said Deepali Khanna, senior vice president and head of Asia, The Rockefeller Foundation.

“Without sustained and smarter development assistance, hard-won progress against disease can disappear, health systems can weaken, and preventable loss of life can follow. These outcomes are not inevitable but avoiding them requires country-led financing and resilient, self-reliant systems that can protect the most vulnerable and save lives,” she added.