Gold Surges, Sinks, and Stabilizes Amid Fed Pushback and Data Delays

Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets— and may continue to in the future.

• Gold surged above $4,240/oz midweek before dropping sharply on Friday as investor optimism faded.

• The government funding resolution sparked a short-lived rally on hopes for fresh economic data and another FOMC rate cut.

• Hawkish Fed commentary late in the week pushed gold down to $4,080/oz before a rebound.

• Uncertainty around delayed economic data releases continues to cloud the outlook heading into December’s FOMC meeting.

Gold prices in the second half of this week have been whipsawed by investors’ sentiments as the market has had to reckon with the distance between optimistic expectations and perceived reality. The result on the chart was, first, another extension of gold’s 2025 rally to a weekly high above $4240/oz, followed on Friday, at its deepest trough, stripping roughly $120 out of the price of gold per ounce.

While US traders have been buying the dip with enough interest to lift the yellow metal off the lows and position the spot market for another week-over-week gain, the potential for gold’s best single-week performance in a month is long gone.

The optimistic rally in gold prices came in response to the US legislature completing a three-day rush to pass a continuing resolution, effectively reopening the federal government for business. Markets generally greeted the news with a mixture of positivity and relief, two inputs that historically have been a considerable drag on gold.

However, what investors were truly optimistic about was less a jolt to jumpstart the US economy and more a belief that with federal offices reopening, there will be a large release of delayed and current key economic data, which—if strong—could support the FOMC cutting interest rates for a third consecutive time at the December meeting.

In this context, gold’s sharp rally makes more sense. Building from an early-week baseline around $4120/oz, the yellow metal surged in Wednesday’s trading before topping out well above $4200.

We can’t prove it, a false supposition that escaping the macro data desert will strengthen the argument for the Fed to cut further next month. But on one hand, the White House has cast serious doubt on whether we will ever see some of that data, or how effectively the BLS and others could spin regular service back up.

And in a more tangible sense, several key members of the FOMC itself have signaled that they do not hold the same view that was apparent in the market on Wednesday and may in fact have become more skeptical of the argument for cutting again before 2026.

On Thursday and into Friday, at least five regional Fed presidents struck a more hawkish tone in public commentary, and that seems to have really sunk in on Friday morning. Hours before the New York market opened to finish the week, gold spot prices dropped precipitously to a low of $4080/oz.

Support for gold looks robust, well above $4000, so there has been a healthy rebound. But this puts us in a place where more hawkish implications from the Fed next week could bring stronger headwinds and another test of support.

For now, the odds that macro data—whether a release of delayed stats or a current-month issue—will meaningfully impact the market outlook appear low. As there have been no efforts to expedite the return of normal service, we may not even see a release of key labor market or price-inflation data in time to directly influence decisions made in the December FOMC meeting.

Discussions are expected to continue over the weekend, though, and on Monday, we will hope for at least some kind of roadmap to set expectations and answer whether we will start to at least see weekly jobs data return late in the week.

In the meantime, traders, I hope you can get out and safely enjoy your weekend for the next couple of days. After that, I’ll see you back here next week for another market recap.