Gold just had its worst month in over a decade. Goldman Sachs is not budging.
After gold fell more than 10% in March 2026, its biggest monthly decline since June 2013, Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its $5,400 per ounce year-end target.
Spot gold is trading around $4,567 to $4,769 as of April 1, well below the all-time high of approximately $5,600 set in late January.
The bank’s message is direct. The March sell-off does not change the structural case. The buyers who drove gold higher are still there, and Goldman does not expect them to leave.
Goldman analysts Daan Struyven and Lina Thomas raised the bank’s 2026 year-end gold target to $5,400 from $4,900 in a note dated Jan. 22. The bank has maintained that target through the March decline.
The core argument is that private investors who bought gold as a hedge against long-term macro risks, including fiscal sustainability concerns and doubts about central bank independence, are not selling. These positions, Goldman says, are “stickier” than the event-driven bets that unwound after the 2024 U.S. election because the underlying concerns do not resolve on a known date.
“Risks to the upgraded forecast are significantly skewed to the upside because private-sector investors may diversify further on lingering global policy uncertainty,” Struyven and Thomas wrote.
Goldman’s framework rests on three structural pillars.
The first is central bank buying. Goldman forecasts that emerging-market central banks will purchase about 60 tonnes of gold per month in 2026, as countries diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar. China’s central bank extended its gold purchases for 15 consecutive months through January 2026, Central Banking reported.
The World Gold Council projects total EM central bank purchases will reach approximately 850 tonnes in 2026, per USAGOLD.
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The second is ETF inflows. Western gold ETFs added roughly 500 tonnes since the start of 2025, running well ahead of what Federal Reserve rate cuts alone would explain. Goldman expects a further half-point of Fed easing in 2026, which it estimates adds roughly $120 per ounce to gold’s price support.
The third is what Goldman calls the “debasement trade.” Concerns over long-term government debt levels and monetary policy credibility are driving physical bar purchases by high-net-worth individuals and call option buying by institutions.
