Have gold prices peaked — Or has the rally just started? How to invest smartly in H2 2025

Gold prices have notably crossed the Rs 1 lakh mark per 10 grams this year, reflecting a significant 25.42% rise since the beginning of 2025. The surge has been driven by geopolitical tensions, notably the Iran-Israel conflict, and economic uncertainties linked to US tariff policies.

The Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) recorded a peak of Rs 1,01,078 on June 16, underlining gold’s status as a safe-haven asset amidst fluctuating market conditions. This remarkable growth has caught the attention of both seasoned and new investors, prompting a reevaluation of investment strategies in the precious metal.

Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities, warned that if a US trade deal is not finalised by July 9, volatility could spike across global markets, further benefiting gold as a safe-haven.

“Gold has support at $3,320–$3,295 an ounce and resistance at $3,360–$3,375 an ounce. In Indian rupee terms, support lies at Rs 96,990–Rs 96,680 per 10 grams, with resistance at Rs 97,810–Rs 98,280 per 10 grams,” said Kalantri.

Investment strategists, including Raju Singh, emphasise the importance of not just investing in gold, but doing so wisely. Singh noted, “Gold has been an outstanding performer this year, delivering roughly 35% returns. But the key question investors face now is not whether to buy gold, but how to invest in it wisely.” This perspective is crucial as investors navigate the current economic landscape, seeking to maximize returns while managing risks.

To invest wisely, experts recommend prioritising gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds over physical gold and digital gold. “Gold ETFs are the best choice for most investors, offering the lowest cost, high liquidity, and regulatory safety. If you don’t have a demat account, gold mutual funds are a practical alternative. But jewellery and coins should be avoided unless you’re buying them to wear, not as an investment,” Singh noted. 

For those considering gold ETFs, investors should look for options with significant assets under management and low expense ratios. Leading choices in the market include the SBI Gold ETF, ICICI Prudential Gold ETF, Kotak Gold ETF, and HDFC Gold ETF. Mutual funds, such as the Nippon India Gold Savings Fund and the SBI Gold Fund, are noted for their consistent performance, making them attractive options for long-term growth.

AspectPhysical GoldDigital GoldGold ETFsGold Mutual Funds
CostMost expensive (10–20% loss upfront due to making charges + 3% GST)5% premium (2–3% spread + 3% GST)Lowest cost (0.5–1% annual expense ratio)Slightly higher (0.6–1.5%) due to double expense ratio (MF + ETF)
Risk & RegulationRisk of theft, purity issues, loss during manufacturingNot SEBI-regulated, possible platform riskRegulated and safeRegulated and safe
TaxationCapital gains tax applicable after 3 years (physical asset)Capital gains tax applicable after 3 years (treated as physical asset)Long-term capital gains tax after 12 monthsLong-term capital gains tax after 12 months (same as ETFs)
Minimum Investment₹10,200 (approx. price of 1gm coin)Starting at ₹1₹50–₹100 (depending on ETF unit price)Approx. ₹100
LiquidityLow liquidity due to making charges and resale issuesMedium liquidity, depends on platformHigh liquidity, easily traded on exchangesHigh liquidity, redeemable through fund houses
Recommended ForPrimarily for wearing, not investmentSmall, easy purchases, but not ideal for large investmentsBest choice for cost, safety, taxationGood option if no demat account
Top ChoicesSBI Gold, ICICI Prudential, Kotak, HDFC Gold ETFsNippon India Gold Savings Fund, LIC MF Gold ETF FOF, SBI Gold Fund
Key InsightsHigh making charges, GST, low liquidityEasy to buy, but platform charges & regulatory riskRegulated, low cost, high liquiditySIP-friendly, but slightly higher expense ratio

Cost analysis shows that physical gold is the most expensive investment route, with potential losses due to making charges and taxes. Digital gold, while convenient, carries platform risk and lacks regulatory oversight. In contrast, gold ETFs are the most cost-efficient, with expense ratios typically ranging from 0.5% to 1%. This makes them an appealing choice for cost-conscious investors looking to optimize their portfolios.

In terms of investment strategy, Singh recommended maintaining a portfolio allocation of 10–15% in gold. He said for steady investment through systematic investment plans in gold ETFs, stating, “I keep at least 10–15% of my portfolio in gold, investing steadily through SIPs in gold ETFs. It’s the most cost-effective way to balance risk and ensure portfolio stability.” This disciplined approach helps investors ride out market volatility while securing their financial future.

The ongoing geopolitical and economic situations have bolstered gold’s appeal. However, as investors consider their options, understanding the costs, risks, and strategic importance of different gold investment avenues remains essential for achieving optimal portfolio stability. In 2025, the method of investment in gold is as crucial as the decision to invest itself, shaping the financial outcomes for investors worldwide.

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