Heat vs. Hawks Prediction, Odds, Picks – Feb. 20

Southeast Division rivals battle when the Miami Heat (29-27) travel to face the Atlanta Hawks (27-30) at State Farm Arena on February 20, 2026. It’s the third matchup between the teams this season. The Heat match up against the Hawks in a game that Miami is currently a small favorite by 4 points. The matchup has an over/under of 244.5.

Here’s everything you need to know about the Heat-Hawks game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks, as well as TV channel and streaming information.

Heat vs. Hawks Game Information, TV Channel & Odds

• When: Friday, February 20, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where: State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia
• TV: FDSSUN, FDSSE, WANF, and Peachtree Sports Network
• Live Boxscore: FOX Sports

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Heat vs. Hawks Prediction

ATS Pick: Hawks (+ 4)
O/U Pick: Under (244.5)
Score Prediction: -Hawks 119 – Heat 118

Heat vs. Hawks Betting Insights

• The Heat and their opponent have combined to score over 244.5 points, the current matchup’s point total, in 20 of 56 games this season.
• A total of 23 Hawks games this season (out of 57) have gone over 244.5 total points scored.
• These teams average a combined 236.9 points per game, 7.6 fewer points than the total of 244.5 set for this game.
• Opponents of the two teams average a combined 8.9 fewer points per game (235.6) than this matchup’s over/under of 244.5 points.
• Miami has come away with 16 wins in the 27 contests it has been listed as the favorite this season.
• Atlanta has been chosen as underdogs in 32 games this year and has walked away with the win 15 times (46.9%) in those games.
• Miami and Atlanta have split the last two games they’ve played.
• The two squads are both 1-1 against the spread in those contests.

Heat Recent Trends

• The Heat have gone 5-5 over their past 10 games, with a 6-4 record against the spread during that span.
• Miami’s average total over the last 10 games is 11.2 points fewer than the 244.5 total listed for this matchup.
• The Heat have 32 wins against the spread in 56 games this season.
• This season, Miami has an ATS record of 11-11 in its 22 games as a favorite of 4 points or more.
• Heat games this year have gone over the total in 29 out of 57 opportunities (50.9%).
• The Heat average 119.6 points per game, only 1.2 more points than the 118.4 the Hawks allow.
• Miami is 23-4 against the spread and 20-6 overall when scoring more than 118.4 points.
• The Heat make 46.1% of their shots from the field this season, which is 1.4 percentage points lower than the Hawks have allowed to their opponents (47.5%).
• Against the spread, the Heat have played worse when playing at home, covering 14 times in 27 home games, and 18 times in 29 road games.
• Miami has hit the over on the total in a higher percentage of home games (51.9%) than road games (51.7%).
• The Heat have fared worse as a moneyline favorite in home games, putting up a home record of 11-9, compared to going 5-2 on the road.

Heat Recent Stats

Heat Leaders

• Bam Adebayo posts 18.4 points, 2.8 assists and 9.9 rebounds per game.
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. puts up 15.2 points, 4.7 assists and 5.4 boards per contest.
• Norman Powell posts 23.0 points, 2.6 assists and 3.6 rebounds per contest.
• Andrew Wiggins posts 15.9 points, 5.0 boards and 2.8 assists per contest, shooting 47.1% from the field and 39.5% from beyond the arc with 2.0 made 3-pointers per contest.
• Kel’el Ware averages 11.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 0.6 assists per contest. Defensively he averages 0.8 steals and 1.0 block.

Heat Player Props

Hawks Recent Trends

• The Hawks have a 4-6 record against the spread while finishing 5-5 overall over their last 10 games.
• Atlanta and its opponents have combined to score an average of 235.3 combined points in its last 10 games, 9.2 less than the 244.5 over/under in this matchup.
• Against the spread, the Hawks are 27-30-0 this season.
• Atlanta is 12-6 ATS when underdogs by 4 points or more this season.
• Hawks games this year have hit the over 29 times in 57 opportunities (50.9%).
• The Hawks score an average of 117.3 points per game, only 0.1 more points than the 117.2 the Heat allow to opponents.
• Atlanta is 17-10 against the spread and 16-11 overall when it scores more than 117.2 points.
• The Hawks are shooting 47.1% from the field, 1.3% higher than the 45.8% the Heat’s opponents have shot this season.
• Against the spread, the Hawks have had better results on the road (18-14-0) than at home (9-16-0) .
• In terms of the over/under, Atlanta’s games have gone over less often at home (11 of 25, 44%) than away (18 of 32, 56.2%).
• The Hawks’ winning percentage at home as moneyline favorites is .417 (5-7), and away it is .538 (7-6).

Hawks Recent Stats

Hawks Leaders

• On a per-game basis, Jalen Johnson gets the Hawks 23.5 points, 10.6 rebounds and 8.1 assists. He also averages 1.4 steals and 0.5 blocked shots.
• The Hawks are getting 20.0 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game from Nickeil Alexander-Walker this season.
• The Hawks are getting 11.6 points, 6.5 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game from Dyson Daniels this year.
• Onyeka Okongwu gives the Hawks 16.1 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game while putting up 1.1 steals and 1.0 block.
• CJ McCollum is putting up 18.8 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.6 assists per contest. He is sinking 45.5% of his shots from the field and 38.5% from 3-point range, with 2.6 treys per contest.

Hawks Player Props

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.