Monday, December 29, 2025

How Algeria could help China plug iron ore gaps and gain pricing power

In the heart of Algeria’s Sahara Desert, Chinese state-owned giant China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC) has completed laying track on the PK330 Bridge, a final and critical link in a new railway designed to unlock the nation’s mineral wealth.

The 6km (3.7-mile) bridge is part of the 950km railway linking the Gara Djebilet iron ore deposit in southwestern Tindouf province to the industrial hub of Bechar in the northeast.

It was the “most technically demanding railway engineering feat ever undertaken in North Africa”, CRCC said on December 10.

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The ore will be processed at newly established industrial complexes in the region and taken to Mediterranean ports. The bridge, which is part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, was built in hostile conditions where temperatures as high as 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit) and shifting sand dunes required engineers to pour concrete at night to ensure structural integrity.

With the final 60km of track laid, the entire route is expected to be fully operational by January, according to Algerian officials. It will finally bring the Gara Djebilet mine into production, decades after its initial discovery in the 1950s. The mine aims to produce between 2 million and 4 million tonnes of iron ore, eventually scaling up to 50 million tonnes per year by 2040.

Last month, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune ordered the railway link – which will ease exports from the deposit – into “immediate service” and inauguration in January. The first rail shipments are expected to reach the Tosyali steel complex, 40km east of the city of Oran, in the first quarter of next year.

The Algerian iron ore will come online within weeks of the start in early December of shipments to China from Guinea’s mega Simandou project. Beijing is expected to also ramp up sourcing from across Africa, particularly from Sierra Leone, Cameroon and the Republic of the Congo.

Experts said China’s accelerated push to develop Africa’s vast iron ore deposits marked a strategic bid to diversify its supply chains and leverage against the pricing power of traditional giants, such as Australia and Brazil, to secure its strategic position in the global commodities market.

For example, the Mbalam-Nabeba project, a cross-border “Simandou-level” deposit, is advancing after years of delays following the revocation of permits held by Australian firm Sundance Resources. The rights are now managed by the Chinese-backed Cameroon Mining Corporation (CMC) and Sangha Mining Development, with support from Bestway Finance, an investment vehicle based in Hong Kong.

State-owned China Railway Construction Corporation has finished laying track on the PK330 Bridge. Photo: CRCC alt=State-owned China Railway Construction Corporation has finished laying track on the PK330 Bridge. Photo: CRCC>

While a dedicated rail corridor is still under development, the first exports are expected to reach Cameroon’s port of Kribi early next year, initially using road transport as a stopgap.

W. Gyude Moore, a distinguished fellow at the Energy for Growth Hub, said “the mines in Guinea and elsewhere in Africa weaken the ability of any one supplier bloc to squeeze China on price, terms or geopolitics”.

Moore said that Simandou, with its high iron content of 65 per cent, allowed China to secure feedstock for green steel. However, “the volumes out of Africa will not be enough to replace either Australia or Brazil; they can only slightly reduce China’s dependence on them and give it leverage”.

In Sierra Leone, the Leone Rock Metal Group, formerly the Chinese-owned Kingho Investment Company, transitioned the Tonkolili mine into a new era early this year with the completion of major processing infrastructure.

Supported by a US$230 million investment, the mine’s beneficiation facilities are designed to expand capacity to 12 million tonnes of 66 per cent iron concentrate per annum by next year. A US$300 million financing package secured from China Overseas Engineering Group (COVEC) in July will fund the expansion of infrastructure and beneficiation facilities into the Tonkolili North deposit.

Yahia Zoubir, a professor of international studies and non-resident senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs in Doha, Qatar, said that “heavy reliance on two suppliers – Australia in particular – creates geopolitical and supply-chain vulnerabilities”.

By diversifying, “China seeks to rebalance power in the global iron ore market, not replace existing suppliers”, he said, describing this as “geoeconomic risk management – diversifying supply, diluting supplier dominance and embedding new producers into China-centred value chains”.

He said he expected African projects to eventually supply 10-15 per cent of China’s imports, potentially reducing Australia’s share to 50-55 per cent. However, “infrastructure constraints and political risks mean African ore will function as a strategic supplement rather than a substitute”, as Australia and Brazil remain more cost efficient.

According to sub-Saharan Africa geoeconomic analyst Aly-Khan Satchu, the African iron ore supply story is a “game changer”, adding that the ore “collapses Australian leverage over China and increases Chinese leverage exponentially”.

“China is now a serious insurgent in global commodity markets and is no longer the price-taker but the price-giver,” Satchu said. “Iron ore is the latest penny to drop; precious metals were, of course, the first.”

Lauren Johnston, a China-Africa specialist and a senior research fellow at the AustChina Institute, said a decade of trade tensions with Australia had allowed African alternatives to emerge.

“Africa’s iron ore assets both foster China-Africa ties and act as China’s insurance, providing a vital strategic hedge against its heavy reliance on traditional suppliers, Australia especially,” Johnston said.

She noted that this strategy was supported by the 2022 formation of the China Mineral Resources Group, which manages steel industry supplies. Johnston questioned whether the ore would be exported or reserved for local use, noting that unlike Australia during its iron ore boom with China, Africa’s demand for steel to drive urbanisation and industrialisation had not yet peaked.

She said Beijing aimed to secure supply for its own manufacturing agenda before other investors did.

“China wants to tie up supply before other investors can, or perhaps to stockpile ore.”

Ultimately, Zoubir said, “African iron ore will not overturn China’s import structure, but it will significantly enhance bargaining power, resilience and strategic autonomy in a market long dominated by a narrow supplier base”.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP’s Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2025 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

Copyright (c) 2025. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.



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