In the wake of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian military infrastructure, the financial press has reflexively focused on oil. Tanker traffic, Brent crude, and the risk of triple-digit prices dominate the discussion.
But oil is not the only commodity posing a serious long-term risk.
Another deep vulnerability runs through natural gas—and from there into nitrogen fertilizer. If commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz were significantly restricted, the impact would extend beyond fuel markets. It would reach directly into global food production.
That’s because the Gulf region is not just a major energy exporter. It is one of the world’s most important suppliers of nitrogen fertilizer—the foundation of modern agricultural yields.
Nitrogen fertilizer begins with natural gas. Through the Haber-Bosch process, methane is converted into ammonia, which is then upgraded into urea and other nitrogen products. In practical terms, nitrogen fertilizer is natural gas transformed into plant food.
Roughly half of global food production depends on synthetic nitrogen. Without it, crop yields would decline sharply.
Globally, about 180 million metric tons of nitrogen fertilizers are consumed each year (measured in nutrient terms). Of that, roughly 55 to 60 million metric tons of urea move through international seaborne trade annually. The Middle East accounts for approximately 40% to 50% of that traded volume.
And nearly all of those exports must transit the Strait of Hormuz.
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In other words, close to one-quarter of globally traded nitrogen fertilizer—and a meaningful share of total global nitrogen production—moves through that single maritime chokepoint that is now threatened by war.
Oil may be the artery of the global economy. Nitrogen fertilizer is central to the global food chain.
The scale of production clustered behind Hormuz is significant:
Qatar exports roughly 5.5 to 6 million metric tons of urea and ammonia annually from its QAFCO complex.
Iran exports around 5 million metric tons of urea per year, representing roughly 10% of global trade.
Saudi Arabia contributes approximately 4 to 5 million metric tons annually through SABIC and related producers.
Oman and the UAE add several million metric tons combined.
Collectively, more than 15 million metric tons of annual export capacity sits inside the Gulf. If you broaden the lens to include ammonia and related nitrogen products, the exposure rises further.
Unlike oil, fertilizer markets lack a meaningful strategic buffer. The United States maintains a Strategic Petroleum Reserve with hundreds of millions of barrels of crude. There is no equivalent stockpile of nitrogen fertilizer ready to offset a prolonged disruption.
Fertilizer trade operates largely on a just-in-time basis. Seasonal demand spikes align with planting cycles, and inventories are not built to absorb major geopolitical shocks.
Agriculture is governed by biology and weather.
In the Northern Hemisphere, fertilizer procurement accelerates ahead of spring planting. If shipments are delayed during that window, farmers face difficult choices: reduce nitrogen application rates, switch crops, or accept higher costs.
Lower nitrogen application generally translates into lower yields. Even modest reductions in application rates can trim output in corn, wheat, and rice—the staples that anchor global calorie supply.
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The world saw a version of this dynamic in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Fertilizer prices surged, and farmers in several regions scaled back usage in response. Yields proved resilient in some areas, but the episode underscored how sensitive food systems are to fertilizer availability and pricing.
Replacing 10 to 20 million metric tons of annual export capacity from the Gulf would not be straightforward. New ammonia plants require years to permit and construct. Existing facilities outside the region typically operate near capacity. Incremental supply cannot simply be switched on in the middle of a planting season.
The reliance on Gulf nitrogen is widespread.
India depends heavily on imported LNG—much of it from Qatar—to fuel its domestic urea production. If gas flows are interrupted, Indian fertilizer output would tighten just as planting cycles approach.
Brazil, one of the world’s largest agricultural exporters, imports substantial volumes of Middle Eastern urea. Soybean and corn production in regions such as Mato Grosso relies on consistent fertilizer deliveries. Any sustained disruption would quickly tighten global grain balances.
The United States is a major fertilizer producer, but it is not insulated. A significant portion of U.S. urea imports transits Hormuz. Domestic producers cannot rapidly add millions of metric tons of new supply to replace disrupted imports.
This is not a regional supply issue. It is a structural vulnerability embedded in the global agricultural system.
Oil price spikes are immediate and visible. Gasoline prices adjust in real time, and financial markets respond within minutes.
Fertilizer disruptions operate on a slower but potentially more consequential timeline. Reduced nitrogen availability today can translate into lower crop yields months later. That eventually shows up in tighter inventories, higher feed costs, and elevated food prices.
Modern agriculture is fundamentally an energy conversion system: natural gas becomes ammonia; ammonia becomes nitrogen fertilizer; fertilizer becomes calories.
If the Strait of Hormuz faces sustained disruption, the most important price to monitor may not be Brent crude. It may be urea benchmarks and ammonia export flows.
Energy security and food security are intertwined. When a single chokepoint handles a large fraction of both oil and nitrogen fertilizer trade, the implications extend well beyond the fuel market.
The headlines may focus on tankers and crude prices. The more enduring story could unfold in the food supply.
By Robert Rapier
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