Shrinking populations may pose a larger economic threat than artificial intelligence-driven job losses, according to venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz co-founder Marc Andreessen.
The economy would already be in panic without AI, he said recently on “Lenny’s Podcast,” hosted by Lenny Rachitsky.
“If we didn’t have AI, we’d be in a panic right now about what’s going to happen to the economy,” Andreessen said.
Public discussion around AI has often focused on job losses. For Andreessen, the larger issue is slow productivity growth combined with declining reproduction rates across major economies.
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Slowing Productivity And Population Decline
He cited falling reproduction rates, saying many countries, including the U.S., are “under two” children per woman and that nations such as China could depopulate over the next century.
“The only reason we’re not worried about that is because we now know that we have the technology that can substitute for the lack of population growth,” Andreessen said. He told Rachitsky economies facing depopulation would contract without a major technological advance and that AI changes that outlook.
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AI will change how work is performed but is unlikely to lead to widespread permanent unemployment, Andreessen said. He said the effects are more likely to occur at the task level, with specific duties automated, rather than entire professions disappearing.
He told Rachitsky that the current period resembles earlier industrial expansions, when faster productivity growth was accompanied by higher job turnover and broader economic growth.
In countries where populations decline and immigration slows, Andreessen said labor could become more limited.
“The remaining human workers are going to be at a premium, not at a discount,” he said.
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“That’s the equivalent of giving everybody a giant raise,” he said.
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