Nifty 50, Sensex and the Nifty Bank fell last week. However, this fall looks shallow. That indicates the absence of strong sellers in the market to drag the indices sharply lower. It also suggests that the sentiment remains positive. On the chart, the pull back move last week looks just like a correction within the broader uptrend. As, such the overall picture continues to remain bullish and the Indian benchmark indices are likely to resume their upmove going forward.
Among the sectors, the BSE Consumer Durable and BSE Healthcare indices rose the most. They were up 2.67 and 2 per cent respectively. The BSE Realty index, down 2.2 per cent fell the most.
FPIs buy
The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) bought the Indian equities for the fourth consecutive week. The equity segment saw a net inflow of about $497 million. The month of June ended with a net inflow of $1.69 billion. July, however, has started with a mild outflow of $166 million. Broadly, it looks like the FPIs are coming back into the market. That can aid in limiting the downside for the Nifty and Sensex.
Video Credit: Businessline
Nifty 50 (25,461)
Nifty fell all through the week, but at a slow pace. The index touched a low of 25,331.65 and closed the week at 25,461, down 0.69 per cent.
Short-term view: The outlook is positive. Immediate supports are at 25,300 and 25,200. We expect the Nifty to sustain above this support and rise back to 25,600-25,700. An eventual break above 25,700 can boost the momentum. Such a break can clear the way for the Nifty to target 26,300-26,500.
Nifty will come under pressure for more fall only if it declines below 25,200. If that happens, 24,800-24,700 can be seen on the downside first. Thereafter, Nifty can rise back to 25,300-25,500 again.
Chart Source: TradingView
Medium-term view: The outlook is bullish. A solid close for the June quarter strengthens the bullish case. Strong support will be around 24,000. We retain our bullish view of seeing 28,000-28,500 on the upside over the medium term. A corrective fall to 26,000 is possible after this rise.
From a long-term perspective, Nifty has potential to target 31,000 eventually next year.
Nifty has to decline below 24,000 to turn the outlook negative. But that looks less likely at the moment.
Nifty Bank (57,031.90)
The resistance at 57,500 has held very well and the Nifty Bank index has come down last week. The index made a low of 56,623.60 before closing at 57,031.90, down 0.72 per cent.
Short-term view: The near-term outlook is slightly mixed. Immediate support is at 56,500 which is holding well for now. The index has to sustain above this support and breach 57,500 to see a rise to 58,500 and even 59,300 straight away.
But, a break below 56,500 can drag the index down to 55,700 or 55,500. Thereafter it can rise back towards 57,500 and 58,500.
So, we will have to watch the price action in the early part of the week to see what happens to the support at 56,500.
Chart Source: TradingView
Medium-term view: There is no change in the broader bullish view. Nifty Bank index can rise to 58,500-59,500 first. Thereafter a corrective fall to 56,000 is a possibility. A fresh leg of rally after this corrective fall can take the Nifty Bank index up to 61,000 over the long term.
The levels of 55,000-54,500 and 53,000 are the important supports which can limit the downside.
Sensex (83,432.89)
Sensex fell gradually last week. It touched a low of 83,015.30 and closed the week at 83,432.89, down 0.74 per cent.
Short-term view: The outlook is bullish. The immediate support at 83,000 is holding well now. Below that 82,750 is the next strong support. We can expect the Sensex to rise back to 84,000-84,100 either from here itself or after testing 82,750.
An eventual break above 84,100 will then clear the way for the Sensex to see 87,000-88,000 on the upside.
The short-term picture will turn negative only if the Sensex declines below 82,750. If that happens, a fall to 81,500-81,000 can be seen first and then the index can rise back again.
Chart Source: TradingView
Medium-term view: The broader bullish view is intact. Sensex can target 88,000-89,000 on the upside first. Thereafter a corrective fall to 86,000 is a possibility. After this corrective fall, a fresh leg of rally will have the potential to take the Sensex up to 91,000-92,000 over the long term.
Nifty Midcap 150 (21,973.15)
The Nifty Midcap 150 index remained stable and range-bound between 21,800 and 22,100 last week. Within this range, the index has closed the week at 21,973.15, up 0.61 per cent.
Short-term view: The outlook is bullish. Immediate support is at 21,800. Below that, strong support is in the 21,650-21,600 region. We expect the Nifty Midcap 150 index to breach 22,100 and rise to 23,000.
Chart Source: TradingView
Medium-term view: The big picture is bullish. Currently there is a broad range of 20,900-22,100. The chances of this sideways range continuing for some more time cannot be ruled out. But, as aforementioned, the index can break 22,100 and rise to 23,000 first.
Eventually we can expect the Nifty Midcap 150 index to breach 23,000 as well and rally to 25,000.
Nifty Smallcap 250 (17,762.20)
The Nifty Smallcap 250 index also remained stable and range-bound last week. The index was stuck between 17,600 and 17,850. It has closed the week at 17,762.20, up 0.68 per cent.
Short-term view: The outlook is positive. Immediate support is at 17,600. Below that 17,400 and 17,000 are the next important supports.
We expect the Nifty Smallcap 250 index to make a bullish breakout above 17,850. Such a break can take the Nifty Smallcap 250 index up to 18,300.
Chart Source: TradingView
Medium-term view: The outlook is bullish. But a key resistance is around 18,300. Support is in the 16,900-16,700 region. If the index fails to breach 18,300 in the first attempt, a fall back to 17,000 cannot be ruled out. In that case, a sideways range move between 16,700 and 18,300 can be seen for some time.
But eventually we can expect the index to break 18,300. Such a break can take the Nifty Smallcap 250 index up to 20,000-21,000 over the medium term.
Published on July 5, 2025
