Index Outlook: A Short Fall

Nifty 50, Sensex and Nifty Bank index did not get a strong follow-through rise after opening the week on a positive note. Sensex and Nifty fell sharply towards the end of the week giving away all the gains. The indices were down 1.14 per cent and 0.87 per cent respectively. Nifty Bank index also fell but managed to close the week marginally higher by 0.11 per cent.

On the charts, the near-term picture is weak. The indices can fall more this week. However, supports are there to limit the downside. We expect the Indian benchmark indices to reverse higher again after testing their supports.

Video Credit: Businessline

FPIs buy

The Foreign Portfolio Investors bought Indian equities for the second consecutive week. The equity segment saw a net inflow of about $1.27 billion last week. If the FPIs accelerate their purchase, then that could aid in pushing the Sensex and Nifty higher going forward.

Nifty 50 (25,471.10)

Short-term view: Supports are at 25,200 and 25,100 which can be tested this week. We expect the Nifty to reverse higher from this support zone. Such a bounce can take the index up to 26,000-26,100 initially. A break above 26,100 can then see 26,400 on the upside.

In case the Nifty breaks below 25,100, an extended fall to 24,700 or 24,400 is possible. Our preference will be to see the Nifty sustaining above 25,100.

Medium-term view: The broader picture remains bullish. The region between 24,000 and 23,500 will be a strong support. Nifty can target 27,500-28,000 in the medium term. A break above 26,400 can trigger this rise. In the long term, the index has the potential to see 30,000-31,000 on the upside.

Nifty has to break below 23,500 to negate this bullish view. If that happens, a fall to 22,000 and lower is possible.

Nifty Bank (60,186.65)

Short-term view: Near-term picture is unclear. Immediate support is at 60,000. Below that, 59,750 and 59,550 are the next key supports. A bounce from the 59,750-59,550 support zone can take the Nifty Bank index higher to 61,000 again.

But a break below 59,550 can drag the index down to 58,800 or 58,500 first. Thereafter the index can bounce back and go up to 61,000.

Ideally, the Nifty Bank index has to breach 61,000 in order to gain momentum. Only then the upside will open up to see 62,000 and higher levels in the short term.

Medium-term view: The sideways consolidation within the broader uptrend is still intact. The bias remains positive to see a bullish breakout above 61,000 eventually. Such a break can take the Nifty Bank index up to 63,000-63,500 initially in the medium term. It will also keep the upside open to target 68,000-69,000 in the long term.

The region between 54,000 and 53,500 is a strong support zone. Nifty Bank index has to fall below 53,500 to negate our bullish view

Sensex (82,626.76)

Short-term view: Supports are at 82,450 and 82,000. As long as the Sensex sustains above 82,000, a bounce back to 84,500-85,000 is possible this week. It will also keep the upside open to revisit 86,000 levels in the short term.

In case the index breaks below 82,000, a fall to 80,500-80,000 can be seen. Thereafter it can bounce back again and go up to 82,500-83,000 and higher.

For now, we do not expect a fall beyond 80,000.

Medium-term view: The broader uptrend is intact. Sensex can rise to 89,000-90,000 in the medium term and 98,000-99,000 in the long term. A break above the 86,000-86,500 resistance zone can clear the way for this rally.

The region around 79,500 is a crucial support. The bullish view will get negated only if the Sensex breaks this support.

Nifty Midcap 150 (21,884.35)

Near-term support is at 21,500. A bounce from here can take the Nifty Midcap 150 index up to 22,800 in the short term. As mentioned last week, the index can gain momentum on an eventual break above 22,800. Such a break can take the Nifty Midcap 150 index up to 26,000-26,500 in the medium term and 28,000-28,500 in the long term.

In case the index fails to bounce back from around 21,500, a fall to 21,000-20,500 can be seen. The levels of 20,500 and 20,000 are crucial supports. A fall below 20,000 is needed to bring the index under pressure. If that happens, 18,500-18,000 levels can be seen on the downside.

Nifty Smallcap 250 (15,988.30)

Immediate support is at 15,850. A bounce from there can take the Nifty Smallcap 250 index up to 16,600-16,700 in a week or two. An eventual break above 16,700 can then take the index further higher to 17,600 or even 18,300 in the short term.

In case the index breaks below 15,850 now, then a fall to 15,300-15,200 or 15,000 is possible. A fall beyond 15,000 is less likely.

As mentioned last week, the long-term picture is looking quite bullish. The aforementioned rise to 18,300 will indicate the beginning of a fresh leg of upmove. As such, a break above 18,300 will have the potential to take the Nifty Smallcap 250 index up to 22,500-23,000 in the long term.

So, we reiterate that this can be a good time to enter the small-cap segment.

This bullish view will go wrong only if the index declines below 15,000.

Published on February 14, 2026