Nifty 50, Sensex and the Nifty Bank index got a breather last week. The benchmark indices recovered slightly after having fallen for six consecutive weeks. Nifty was up 1.1 per cent. Sensex and the Nifty Bank index rose 0.93 and 0.61 per cent respectively last week.
The Nifty Midcap 150 and the Nifty Smallcap 250 indices snapped their three-week fall. They were up 0.81 per cent and 0.69 per cent respectively last week.
However, the bounce last week is not giving any significant sign of a trend reversal. Key resistances are still ahead. The indices have to breach them and get a strong follow-through buying. That will only give us a confirmation that the correction has ended. As such we will have to wait and watch the movement closely for the next one or two weeks to get more clarity.
FPIs sell
The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continued to sell the Indian equities for the fifth consecutive week. The quantum of selling was low though. The equity segment saw a net outflow of about $348 million last week. The FPIs have to turn net buyers in order to help the Sensex and Nifty to reverse the current downtrend.
Nifty 50 (24,631.30)
Short-term view: Immediate support is at 24,450. A rise above 24,700 can take the Nifty up to 24,800 and even 25,000-25,100 in a week or two.
Only a fall below 24,450 will bring the Nifty under pressure again. That will keep alive the chances of the fall to 24,000.
Ideally, Nifty must breach 25,100 and get a strong follow-through rise. That will confirm the trend reversal and open the doors for a rally to 25,600 and higher.
Chart Source: TradingView
Medium-term view: The region between 24,000 and 23,500 will continue to remain as the strong support zone. As long as the Nifty stays above it, the broader trend will remain up. That will keep intact our view of seeing 28,000-28,500 over the medium term and 31,000 in the long term.
This bullish view will go wrong only if the Nifty declines below 23,500. That will drag the index down to 22,000-21,700.
Video Credit: Businessline
Nifty Bank (55,341.85)
Short-term view: Nifty Bank index is stuck between 54,900 and 55,650 for more than a week. A break above 55,650 can take it up to 56,100-56,200. A decisive break above 56,200 will indicate a trend reversal and trigger a rise to 57,500-58,000 in the short-term.
Series of supports are there at 54,800, 54,000 and 53,500. So, the downside can be limited in case the index declines below 54,800.
Chart Source: TradingView
Medium-term view: The big picture will remain bullish as long as the Nifty Bank index sustains above the 54,000-53,500 support zone. We retain our view of seeing 59,000 over the medium term and 61,000 in the long term.
A fall below 53,500 is needed to negate this bullish view. If that happens, a fall to 52,300-52,000 and even lower can be seen.
Sensex (80,597.66)
Short-term view: Immediate resistance is at 80,720. A break above it can take the Sensex up to 81,200 or 81,300. A further break above 81,300 will then clear the way for a rise to 82,000 and even 83,000. That in turn will indicate a trend reversal.
But a turnaround either from 80,720 itself or 81,300 will keep the current downtrend intact. It will then keep the doors open to see 79,000 on the downside.
Chart Source: TradingView
Medium-term view: Sensex will remain bullish as long as it sustains above the 79,000-78,600 support zone. That will keep intact our view of seeing a rally to 88,000-89,000 over the medium term and 91,000-92,000 eventually over the long term.
A decisive break below 78,600 will negate the bullish view and drag the Sensex down to 77,000-76,000.
Nifty Midcap 150 (21,017.05)
The bounce last week lacks strength. That still keeps the Nifty Midcap 150 index vulnerable to break 20,700 and fall to 20,400 or even 20,000.
The region around 20,000 is a very strong support. A bounce from there can see a rise to 21,500-22,000 again.
Chart Source: TradingView
As mentioned last week, such a rise to 21,500-22,000 will indicate an inverted head and shoulder bullish pattern on the chart. A decisive break above 22,000 will confirm the same. Such a break can take the Nifty Midcap 150 index up to 23,000-23,500 over the medium term and 25,000-25,500 in the long term.
The index has to fall below 20,000 to negate this bullish view. If that happens, a fall to 19,300-19,000 can be seen.
Nifty Smallcap 250 (16,656.75)
The Nifty Smallcap 250 index is managing to hold above the crucial support level of 16,400. Resistance in the 16,900-17,000 region has to be broken to ease the downside pressure and see a rise 17,200 and 17,350.
Chart Source: TradingView
That will keep alive the chances of an inverted head and shoulder pattern. It can then take the index up to 18,000-18,200 in the short term. A break above 18,200 will confirm the pattern and can take the Nifty Smallcap 250 index up to 21,000 over the long term.
A break below 16,400 will be bearish for a fall to 15,800-15,700 and will negate the aforementioned bullish view.
Published on August 16, 2025
