Nifty 50, Sensex and Nifty Bank index recovered well last week. This has eased some pressure after the sharp fall seen the week earlier. The support that we mentioned last week has held very well for the Nifty, Sensex and the Nifty Bank index. This keeps intact our broader bullish view.
Nifty and Sensex were up about a per cent each. The Nifty Bank index, on the other hand, surged over 2 per cent last week. A possible inverted head and shoulder is in the making on the Nifty Bank index. This strengthens the bullish case.
Among the sectors, the BSE Metals and BSE PSU indices outperformed last week. They were up 3.93 and 2.97 per cent respectively.
FPIs sell
The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) sold Indian equities for the second consecutive week. The equity segment saw a net outflow of about $1.15 billion last week.
Video Credit: Businessline
Nifty 50 (24,894.25)
Short-term view: The outlook is positive. Nifty can break the immediate resistance at 25,000 and rise to 25,200 and 25,500 this week. It will have to be seen if the Nifty is managing to breach 25,500 this time or not. If it does, then an extended rise to 25,700 and 26,000-26,100 is possible.
Failure to breach 25,500 can drag the index down to 25,000-24,500 again. The short-term outlook will turn negative only if the Nifty breaks below 24,500. Such a break, though less likely, can take the index down to 24,200 or 24,000.
Medium-term view: There is no change in the broader bullish view. Nifty has potential to target 28,000-29,000 in the medium term and 31,000 in the long term. Intermediate resistance is around 27,000.
Strong support is in the broad 24,000-23,000 region. Nifty has to decline below 23,000 to negate our bullish view and become bearish for a fall to 22,000-21,500.
Nifty Bank (55,589.25)
Short-term view. A bullish inverted head and shoulder pattern is emerging on the daily chart. Neckline resistance is at 55,850. A break above it will confirm this pattern and take the Nifty Bank index up to 56,200 initially. A further break above 56,200 will then boost the momentum for a rise to 57,000-58,000.
In case 56,200 caps the upside for now, then a dip to 55,800-55,500 can be seen first and then the rise to 57,000-58,000 can happen.
A fall below 54,000 will only turn the short-term picture negative. It can then drag the index down to 53,500-53,000. But that looks less likely.
Medium-term view: The broader uptrend will remain intact as long as the index sustains above the 53,000-52,800 support zone. We remain bullish to see the Nifty Bank index surging to 58,000-59,000 in the medium term and 61,000 in the long term.
A fall below 52,800 will only turn the bullish view wrong. If that happens, a fall to 52,000 and lower can be seen.
Sensex (81,207.17)
Short-term view: The psychological support level of 80,000 has held very well. Immediate resistance is in the 81,500-81,700 region. A break above 81,700 will be bullish to see a rise to 83,200-83,400.
Failure to breach 81,700 can take the Sensex down to 80,000 again. A break below 80,000, if seen can drag it to 79,500-79,000.
Our preference will be to see a rise to 83,200-83,400.
Medium-term view: The broader bullish view will remain intact as long as the Sensex stays above 77,000. Sensex can rally to 88,000-89,000 in the medium term and 91,000-92,000 in the long term.
Sensex has to decline below 77,000 to become bearish. Only then a fall to 72,000 will come into the picture.
Nifty Midcap 150 (21,400.30)
The 2 per cent rise has given some breather. Broadly, the index seems to be stuck inside a range of 20,600-22,100 for more than four months now. Within this range, immediate resistance is at 21,450. A break above it can take the index up to 21,700-22,000 again.
From a big picture, we see the recent sideways move as a consolidation within the long-term upmove. As such, the bias is bullish to breach 22,000. Such a break can take the Nifty Midcap 150 index up to 23,000-23,500 in the medium term and 25,000-25,500 in the long term.
The index has to fall below 20,000 to negate this bullish view. But that looks less likely.
Nifty Smallcap 250 (17,015.30)
The support at 16,500 has held very well. Resistance is in the 17,100-17,200 region. A break above it can take the index up to 17,400-17,500 initially. A further break above 17,500 can boost the momentum and take the index up to 18,000.
Failure to breach 17,200 can drag the index down to 16,700-16,500 again. The danger is only if a break below 16,500 is seen. If that happens, 16,000 can be seen on the downside.
For now, we expect the index to sustain above 16,500 and rise past 18,000 eventually. That will clear the way for the Nifty Smallcap 250 index to target 20,000 in the medium term and 21,500-22,200 in the long term.
Published on October 4, 2025
