Nifty 50, Sensex and the Nifty Bank index extended their fall for the sixth consecutive week. Strong foreign money outflows are weighing more on the markets. The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulled out about $1.3 billion from the equity segment last week. There has been a net outflow of about $4.5 billion in the last four weeks. The US increasing the tariffs on imports from India has also raised the concerns.
The week that was
The Nifty Bank index fell 1.1 per cent. The Sensex and the Nifty were down 0.92 and 0.82 per cent respectively. The mid-cap and small-cap indices were beaten down badly again. The Nifty Midcap 150 and the Nifty Smallcap 250 index were down 1.14 per cent and 1.91 per cent respectively. Indeed, the Nifty Smallcap 250 index has been knocked down by 7.6 per cent in the last three weeks.
Among the sectors the BSE FMCG, BSE Realty and the BSE Healthcare indices were beaten down the most. All the three indices were down over 2 per cent each.
Nifty (24,363.30)
Short-term view: The downtrend is intact. Nifty can fall to 24,200 or even 24,000. The level of 24,000 is a strong support from where Nifty can rise back to 24,500-24,600. If this bounce sustains, then it will give an early sign of a trend reversal.
But, if the Nifty breaks below 24,000, there can be an extended fall to 23,700-23,650. Our preference will be to see the Nifty reversing higher from around 24,000.
Medium-term view: We reiterate that 24,000-23,500 is a crucial support zone which we expect to hold. A strong bounce from the 24,000-23,500 region will mark the end of the correction and take the Nifty up to 26,000 initially. It will then keep our broader bullish view intact to see 28,000-28,500 over the medium term and 31,000 in the long term.
The bullish view will go wrong if the Nifty declines below 23,500. In that case, 22,000-21,700 can be seen on the downside.
Nifty Bank (55,004.90)
Short-term view: Nifty Bank index has an immediate support at 54,850-54,750. A bounce from this support zone can take it up to 56,000-56,500. A decisive rise above 56,500 decisively is needed to indicate the resumption of the broader uptrend. Only then the doors will open to see 58,000 and higher levels.
In case the index breaks below 54,750, a fall to 54,000-53,500 is possible. Thereafter it can rise back to 55,000 and higher.
Medium-term view: We expect the 54,000-53,500 support zone to halt the fall and trigger a reversal. That will keep intact our broader bullish view of seeing 59,000 first over the medium term and 61,000 in the long term.
In case the Nifty Bank index breaks below 53,500, it will be bearish to see 52,300-52,000. In that case, our bullish view will go wrong.
Sensex (79,857.79)
Short-term view: The fall to 79,700 almost happened last week. A break below 79,700 can drag the Sensex down to 79,000. A strong bounce from 79,000 is needed to go back up to 80,000-81,000 again. A decisive break below 79,000 can drag the Sensex down to 78,600.
A strong and sustained rise above 81,000 is needed now to indicate that the fall has ended.
Medium-term view: A bounce from the 79,000-78,600 will keep the broader uptrend intact. The subsequent rise above 81,000 mentioned above will confirm the same. That will keep intact our view of seeing 88,000-89,000 on the upside over the medium term and 91,000-92,000 over the long term.
The bullish view will go wrong if the Sensex declines below 78,600. If that happens, the index can fall to 77,000-76,000.
Nifty Midcap 150 (20,848.25)
The fall to 20,650 mentioned last week is happening in line with our expectation. The short-term outlook remains bearish to see 20,600-20,500 and even 20,200-20,000. However, 20,000 is a very strong support and a fall beyond it is unlikely.
A strong bounce anywhere from the broad 20,500-20,000 region will be bullish for a rise to 21,800-22,200 again.
Such a move will indicate an inverted head and shoulder formation on the chart. An eventual break above 22,200 will confirm this pattern. That will be bullish for the rally to 23,000-23,500 over the medium term and 25,000-25,500 in the long term.
The bullish view will go wrong if the index declines below 20,000. In that case, an extended fall to 19,300-19,000 is possible.
Nifty Smallcap 250 (16,541.90)
The fall to 16,550 happened last week as expected. Crucial supports are at 16,530, 16,470 and 16,400. The index has to sustain above 16,400 and rise above 16,800 subsequently to get a breather. If that happens, a short-term relief rally to 17,300-17,500 is possible. That will only keep alive the chances of the inverted head and shoulder pattern formation on the chart. It will also keep our long-term bullish view to break the 18,000-18,200 resistance region and rise to 21,000.
But a break below 16,400 will negate the bullish view and drag the index down to 15,900-15,800.
Published on August 9, 2025
