Nifty 50, Sensex and the Nifty Bank index were all beaten down badly. Last week we had said that the benchmark indices can bounce back from their support. That view has gone wrong. Strong foreign money outflows and the trade tariff tensions are all weighing on the market sentiment.
Nifty and Sensex were down 2.5 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively. Nifty Bank index on the other hand fell 2.7 per cent. The mid-cap and small-cap indices were knocked down too. The Nifty Midcap 150 index fell 4.4 per cent. The Nifty Smallcap 250 index was down 5.5 per cent.
All sectoral indices ended in red last week. The BSE Realty index, down 11.3 per cent, tumbled the most.
Overall, the picture on the charts looks weak. The benchmark indices can fall further from here. However, from a long-term perspective, this fall is going to give us a very good buying opportunity.
FPIs sell
The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have been on a selling spree for the last five consecutive weeks. The FPIs pulled out about $1.21 billion from the equity segment last week. There has been a net outflow of about $3.72 billion so far for the month of January. Further selling from the FPIs will continue to keep the Nifty and Sensex under pressure.
Video Credit: Businessline
Nifty 50 (25,048.65)
Short-term view: Nifty has an immediate support at 25,000. However, any bounce from here can be capped at 25,400 or 25,600. Nifty is likely to remain vulnerable to break 25,000 and fall to 24,300 or 24,000 in the short term. This fall can happen either from here itself or after a corrective rise to 25,400 or 25,600.
For now, we are not expecting a fall beyond 24,000. Our expectation is to see the Nifty rising back from around 24,000 to 25,000, and 26,000, again.
Medium-term view: The region between 24,000 and 23,500 will be a crucial support. There is no threat for our bullish view as long as the Nifty stays above these supports. As such, we continue to retain our bullish view of the Nifty targeting 27,500-28,000 in the medium term and 30,000-31,000 in the long term.
The bullish view will go wrong only if Nifty declines below 23,500. If that happens, then 22,000 and lower levels can be seen.
Nifty Bank (58,473.10)
Short-term view: The 58,650-60,450 range has been broken on the downside. That leaves the near-term picture negative to see a fall to 58,000 or 57,600, the next important support. The Nifty Bank index has to bounce from either of these supports and rise past 59,000 to get some relief. If that happens, a revisit of 60,000 and higher levels will come into the picture.
But, if the index breaks below 57,600, a steeper fall to 56,000 or 55,500 is possible. As such the price action in the 58,000-57,600 region will need a very close watch this week.
Medium-term view: The broader trend remains up and this is going to be just a correction within that. Strong support is in the 54,000-53,800 region. As long as the index stays above this support, the upside is open to see 63,000-63,500 in the medium term and 68,000-69,000 in the long term.
This bullish view will go wrong only if the index breaks below 53,800.
Sensex (81,537.70)
Short-term view: The fall below 82,800 has turned the short-term picture negative. Resistances will now be at 82,000 and 82,650. Sensex can fall to 80,000 or 79,500. But thereafter it can rise back towards 82,000 again.
This leg of upmove will have the potential to break the resistance at 82,650. Such a break can take the Sensex higher towards 84,000 again.
Medium-term view: The region around 79,500 is a crucial support. Sensex has to break this support to become bearish for a fall to 77,000.
As long as the index stays above this support, there is no change in our broader bullish view. So, for now we retain our view of the Sensex rallying to 89,000-90,000 in the medium term and 98,000-99,000 in the long term.
Nifty Midcap 150 (21,008.55)
Immediate supports are at 20,800 and 20,600. A bounce from either of these supports can give some relief and take the index higher to 21,600 or 21,800. That in turn will keep the broader bullish view intact of seeing 26,000-26,500 in the medium term and 28,000-28,500 in the long term.
The danger is only if the index breaks below 20,600. If that happens, 19,800 can be seen on the downside first. Failure to rise back from around 19,800 will keep the downside open to see even 18,000.
From a long-term perspective, a bounce from around 19,800 can be seen as a good entry point into the midcap segment. We will have to wait and watch.
Nifty Smallcap 250 (15,314.60)
The fall to 15,200 mentioned last week has almost happened. There is some more room to fall. The region between 15,000 and 14,850 is a crucial support zone. There is a good chance to see a bullish reversal from this support zone. Such a rise can take the index up to 16,500 initially and to 18,000 eventually.
The index will come under more selling pressure if it declines below 14,850. If that happens, then, there is a danger of seeing 13,300-13,000 on the downside.
The price action around 15,000 will need a close watch this week.
Published on January 24, 2026
