Index Outlook: Things Are Looking Up

Nifty 50, Sensex and the Nifty Bank index have risen well from their support last week. Nifty and Sensex were up 1.1 per cent and 0.9 per cent respectively. The Nifty Bank index rose 1.95 per cent.

All eyes are now on the Budget. We will have to wait and see what is there in it for the markets from this event.

But if we keep the Budget aside and look at the charts, the picture is looking good. So, any fall after the Budget can be short-lived. Supports are there to limit the downside on the benchmark indices. The fall after the Budget, if seen will be a a very good long-term buying opportunity.

Among the sectors, the BSE Capital Goods index surged the most last week. The index was up 7.9 per cent. This was followed by the BSE Power index, up 6 per cent. The BSE Consumer Durables index fell the most last week. The index was down 2.67 per cent.

FPIs sell

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continued to sell Indian equities for the sixth consecutive week. However, the quantum of selling was relatively lower last week. There was a net outflow of about $257 million. The net outflow for the month of January was $3.97 billion. The FPIs have pulled out about $6.49 billion in the last couple of months.

Nifty 50 (25,320.65)

Short-term view: Immediate supports are at 25,100, 25,050 and 24,900. Resistance is around 25,620. A break above it can take Nifty higher to 26,400 in the short term.

In case the index breaks below 24,900 after the budget, a fall to 24,500 or 24,200 is possible. For now, we are not looking for any fall beyond 24,200-24,000. As such, Nifty can rise back again after this fall and can go up to 26,000 and higher.

Medium-term view: The overall outlook remains bullish. We retain our view seeing a rise to 27,500-28,000 in the medium term and 30,000-31,000 in the long term.

The region between 24,000 and 23,500 is a strong support. The bullish view will go wrong only if the Nifty declines below 23,500. In that case, a fall to 22,000 and lower is possible.

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Nifty Bank (59,610.45)

Short-term view: The support at 58,000 has held very well. Nifty Bank index has risen back from its low of 58,121.60 last week. Resistance is at 60,700 which can be tested this week. We see high chances for the Nifty Bank index to break this resistance going forward. Such a break can take the index up to 61,800-62,000.

Nifty Bank index will come under fresh selling pressure only on a break below 58,000. If that happens, a fall to 57,000 or even 56,000 can be seen.

Medium-term view: The index is now consolidating within the overall uptrend. The bullish outlook remains intact. Nifty Bank index can rise to 63,000-63,500 in the medium term and 68,000-69,000 in the long term.

Support is in the 54,000-53,800 region. The index has to break this support decisively in order to negate the bullish outlook.

Sensex (82,269.78)

Short-term view: The index is getting support around 81,000. Resistance is around 83,000. Sensex has to breach this hurdle in order to get a rise to 83,600 or 84,300.

The index will come under pressure if it breaks below 81,000. Such a break can take it down to 80,000 or 79,500. Thereafter the index can rise back again targeting 83,000 and higher levels in the short term. We are not expecting a fall beyond 79,500.

Medium-term view: The broader picture remains bullish. Sensex can rise to 89,000-90,000 in the medium term and 98,000-99,000 in the long term.

Crucial support to watch is at 79,500. The aforementioned bullish view will go wrong only if the Sensex breaks below 79,500. If that happens, a fall to 77,000 can be seen.

Nifty Midcap 150 (21,490.90)

The support at 20,800 has held very well last week. The Nifty Midcap 150 index has risen back very well from the low of 20,807.90. The bounce back move last week has given some relief.

Resistance is in the 21,550-21,600 region. A strong break above 21,600 can take the Nifty Midcap 150 index up to 22,150 in the short term. An eventual break above 22,150 will see the rise extending to 22,800-22,850.

Such a rise will keep the broader bullish view intact. A break above 22,850 will then clear the way for the Nifty Midcap 150 index to target 26,000-26,500 in the medium term and 28,000-28,500 in the long term.

The levels of 20,800 and 20,600 are crucial supports. The index will come under the threat for a fall to 19,800 only on a break below 20,600.

Nifty Smallcap 250 (15,763.45)

The index fell to a low of 15,111.30 initially and then has risen back well recovering all the loss. Immediate support is at 15,400. Resistance is around 15,850. A break above it can take the index higher to 16,000 initially and even 16,500-16,700 eventually in the coming weeks.

A strong break above 16,700 is needed to indicate a bullish trend reversal. Only then the upside will open to see 18,000 levels.

The region around 15,000 will be an important support. The Nifty Smallcap 250 index will come under pressure for more fall if it breaks below this support. In that case, a fall to 14,000 is possible.

Published on January 31, 2026