India needs stable agri-export policy to achieve $100 billion goal: Economic Survey

India must align its policies to boost agricultural exports and avoid ad hoc trade restrictions that disrupt supply chains and damage the country’s reputation as a reliable supplier, the Economic Survey said on Thursday (January 29, 2026).

Agricultural exports represent “low-hanging fruit with immense export potential” and carry international leverage for India, the Survey said, calling for policies that balance domestic demand with export growth.

India aims to reach $100 billion in combined exports of agriculture, marine products and food and beverages in the next four years, up from $51.1 billion in agricultural exports in fiscal 2024-25.

The world’s second-largest agricultural producer by value accounts for just 2.2% of global farm exports, up from 1.1% in 2000, according to World Trade Organisation data — a “significant untapped potential,” the Survey said.

Agricultural exports grew at a compound annual growth rate of 8.2% between fiscal 2019-20 and 2024-25, outpacing overall merchandise export growth of 6.9%.

However, agricultural exports have stagnated between fiscal 2022-23 and 2024-25, even as global agricultural trade rose to $2.4 trillion in 2024 from $2.3 trillion in 2022.

“Frequent policy changes can significantly disrupt export supply chains, create market uncertainty and cause foreign buyers to switch to other sources,” the Survey warned, adding that export markets once lost are not easily recovered.

India has often employed ad hoc export bans or minimum export prices to manage domestic inflation and price volatility, measures that may temporarily stabilise prices but risk longer-term reputational costs.

The Survey recommended alternative policy tools to ensure domestic availability at fair prices, including subsidised food distribution, buffer stock management, market interventions and enforcement of anti-hoarding measures.

“It is possible to stabilise domestic availability and prices while enabling farmers to tap global markets for better incomes,” the Survey said.

India’s agricultural exports accounted for 11-14% of merchandise exports during the five-year period through fiscal 2024-25.