India’s TV audience to touch 1 billion by 2029: IIM report

India’s rapid economic growth, rising disposable incomes and improving literacy levels are reshaping content consumption patterns and are set to significantly expand the country’s television audience, according to a new report by professors at the Indian Institute of Management-Ahmedabad (IIMA).

The report, ‘Future of TV in India’, authored by Viswanath Pingali of the institute’s Economics Area and Ankur Sinha of the Operations and Decision Sciences Area, projects that the television audience in India will grow to nearly 1.03 billion viewers by 2029. The study is supported by the Brij Disa Centre for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence (CDSA) at IIMA.

Analysing demographic, economic and digital factors influencing television viewership, the report estimates that the TV audience will expand at an annual rate of about 2.37%. It finds that much of the future growth will come from rural areas and lower income States, as their income levels gradually converge with those of higher income regions.

A key finding of the study is the strong link between rising internet penetration and television audience growth. According to the report, an increase in internet subscribers is associated with a significant rise in TV viewership, indicating that digital connectivity complements rather than replaces television consumption. The authors note that as internet access expands, television and online video platforms are likely to coexist and grow together.

Use of statistical framework

The professors used a statistical regression framework to examine variations in TV audiences across States over multiple years. The model incorporated variables such as internet subscribers, Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) per capita, literacy rates, dependency ratios, income levels and access to micro-credit. The analysis suggests that continued urbanisation and improvements in household infrastructure will drive higher television penetration, particularly in rural and low income regions.

“As affordability improves and incomes rise, television ownership and consumption are expected to increase disproportionately in emerging markets where per capita income remains below the national average,” the report states.

Commenting on the findings, Mr. Pingali said the research aimed to establish data-driven indicators for understanding television’s growth trajectory as a mature consumption medium. “There is a clear indication that rising incomes and improving literacy rates, especially in rural and lower income regions, are creating a multiplier effect that strengthens television adoption and consumption,” he said.

Mr. Sinha said the study quantified multiple drivers of television audience growth simultaneously. “Internet penetration emerged as a consistent and significant factor. The interaction between internet access, demographic composition and income growth is particularly strong in rural and low income regions that have traditionally been under-penetrated television markets,” he said.

The report also highlights a correlation between literacy rates, dependency ratios and television adoption. It points to the role of television in social development, noting that features such as same-language subtitling can aid literacy, particularly in rural India. Television content, the study notes, also contributes to greater awareness of personal autonomy, financial independence and more progressive attitudes towards gender norms.

The analysis states that there is deep penetration of television into India’s social fabric and identifies the demographic characteristics shaping its future growth. The authors say the audience-estimation model presented in the report provides an academic assessment of television’s continued relevance amid India’s ongoing socio-economic transition.