Is Expand Energy Stock Underperforming the Nasdaq?

Formed in 2024 through the merger of Chesapeake Energy Corporation and Southwestern Energy Company, Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) has ascended to the top as America’s largest natural gas producer. With a market capitalization brushing $24 billion, the company comfortably sits in the “large-cap” arena, a space reserved for industry titans with valuations above $10 billion.

Based in Oklahoma, the company’s operations stretch across the Haynesville, Marcellus, and Utica Shales, spanning Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia, managing a sprawling portfolio of roughly 8,000 wells. Its operations encompass drilling, completion, and production, underpinned by vertically integrated oilfield services.

EXE stock performance tells a story of resilience and volatility. From a 52-week high of $123.35 in June, the stock has declined 16.4%. Over the past three months, it has declined 15.9%, diverging sharply from the Nasdaq Composite’s ($NASX) 13% gain over the same period.

On a longer horizon, though, EXE has managed to rise 28.7% over the past 52 weeks, with 3.6% growth in 2025, while Nasdaq has advanced 24.5% over the past year and rose by 16.5% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis.

Technical indicators show EXE regaining stability. After consistently trading above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages for most of the past year, the stock slipped below 50- and 200-day levels in July. Since mid-September, EXE has bounced back, holding above its 50-day MA while approaching the 200-day mark, signaling potential stabilization and renewed upward momentum.

On July 29, Expand Energy unveiled its Q2 2025 earnings results, in which the bottom line missed analyst expectations. Revenue surged 630.7% year-over-year (YoY) to $3.69 billion, beating the Street’s forecast. Adjusted EPS rose significantly to $1.10, but came in slightly below the $1.14 consensus.

Despite the earnings miss, the company posted strong annual growth. Investor sentiment turned positive, lifting the stock 1.3% on the day of the release and a further 4.9% the next day, supported by confidence in the firm’s operational progress.

Record drilling performance, an enhanced free cash flow prediction to $1.6 billion, a $100 million reduction in capital expenditures, and a $600 million cost synergy objective by 2026 all point to rigorous execution. Plus, shareholder returns reached $585 million in dividends and buybacks during H1 2025, softening any concerns from the earnings gap.

To put EXE’s performance in perspective, its rival, Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA), has struggled over the past year. It declined modestly over the past 52 weeks and is now down roughly 7% YTD, highlighting EXE’s resilience.

Even amid periods of stock weakness and earnings misses, analysts remain steadfastly bullish, highlighting the company’s operational discipline. Out of 27 analysts tracking EXE, the consensus rating lands at “Strong Buy,” reflecting broad confidence in the company’s ability to deliver both growth and returns.

The mean price target of $131.46 suggests a premium of 27.5% to current levels, signaling that the market still sees untapped upside driven by EXE’s operational execution and disciplined capital management.

On the date of publication, Sristi Jayaswal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com