It’s generally not a good idea to buy stocks that have recently rallied based on hype. If the stock price growth doesn’t reflect an improvement in fundamental metrics like profit or cash flow, it probably won’t last very long.
Investors in Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) learned this the hard way. Shares in the quantum computing start-up are down by an eye-popping 60% from their all-time high of $56 reached in October. That said, not much has changed in the quantum computing industry as a whole — and that’s partially because there isn’t much there to begin with today.
Let’s dig deeper to see if the situation might change in 2026 and decide if Rigetti Computing is a good way to bet on the long-term opportunity.
Quantum computers are a theoretical device designed to solve complex problems by replacing a traditional computer bit (which can only be in one of two states) with a qubit, which can be in multiple states at the same time. The difference can be likened to a coin that is either heads or tails compared to a coin that remains spinning in the air.
This technology is beyond the limits of current physics and computer science. However, if it eventually works, it could create billions in shareholder value by allowing companies to quickly discover new drugs, chemical compounds, and even the most efficient logistics routes. Rigetti has positioned itself on the picks-and-shovels side of this opportunity, aiming to provide the hardware other enterprises will use to unlock value.
The company is already building early-stage quantum computers and processors while also offering a cloud-based service that allows clients to remotely access its devices through traditional computer interfaces.
Most importantly, Rigetti has the capacity to manufacture its own chips in the U.S. at its foundry in Fremont, California. Not only does domestic manufacturing add a level of political protection (quantum computing is a geopolitically sensitive technology), but it could also open up an opportunity to build quantum chips for other companies, similar to the role Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing plays in traditional semiconductor chip manufacturing.
Rigetti clearly has a very compelling business model. By tackling the picks-and-shovels side of the quantum computing opportunity, it will shield itself from the risks faced by more consumer-facing companies as they seek to pioneer a brand new technology. That said, even the best strategy will ultimately fail to generate shareholder value if it seeks to monetize an industry that simply isn’t commercially viable right now.
