Is Smurfit Westrock Stock Underperforming the S&P 500?

Headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) is a global provider of sustainable paper-based packaging solutions. It manufactures containerboard, corrugated containers, consumer packaging, and specialty products, including solid board, kraft paper, paper sacks, and bag-in-box.

With a market capitalization of about $22.6 billion, Smurfit Westrock sits in the “large-cap” league, comfortably above the $10 billion mark, reaching food, beverage, retail, e-commerce, and industrial customers in over 40 countries.

The stock has had its fair share of bumps. SW shares have slipped more than 25.8% from a 52-week high of $56.99 in November 2024. Over the last three months, the stock has edged lower, while in stark contrast, the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has gained 8.4% during the same stretch.

Over the past 52 weeks, SW stock has declined 11.6%, and year-to-date it is down 21.5%. On the flip side, the broader index has climbed 15.4% in the past year and 12.3% year-to-date.

As of this month, shares of SW have been trading below its 50-day moving average of $45.09 and its 200-day moving average of $46.88, signaling that investors are treading cautiously.

The latest earnings report did little to lift sentiment. On July 30, the stock dropped another 1.7% after the company reported Q2 2025 results that revealed a net loss of $26 million, compared to a net profit of $132 million in last year’s quarter. Restructuring costs weighed heavily, with $280 million in charges tied to previously announced closures and cost-saving moves.

Still, the top line showed some resilience. Net sales stood at $7.9 billion, rising 167.4% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA reached $1.21 billion, also up 152.7% year over year. Without the restructuring impact, results landed in line with its adjusted EBITDA guidance.

Looking ahead, Smurfit Westrock’s management expects adjusted EBITDA of roughly $1.3 billion for the next quarter and has maintained its full-year forecast between $5 billion and $5.2 billion, provided current market conditions hold steady.

Meanwhile, the company could see long-term support from rising packaging needs fueled by booming e-commerce activity and steady demand across food, beverage, and healthcare markets.

To put SW’s performance into perspective, its rival Ball Corporation (BALL) is down 27% over the past 52 weeks and 12.1% in 2025.

Despite the current industry headwinds and weak price action, analysts remain constructive on SW’s prospects. Out of 16 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Strong Buy,” and the mean price target of $57.21 signals a premium of 35.3% to current levels.

On the date of publication, Anushka Mukherjee did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com