Sunday, October 12, 2025

Is This a $370 Million Reason to Buy Plug Power Stock Now?

Plug Power (PLUG) has spent over 25 years making hydrogen fuel technology possible. It has gone through multiple market cycles, and cash has always been the limiting factor for the company.

PLUG stock has been in a perpetual state of decline due to the company raising cash through dilution. It has used cyclical surges in its share price to raise large sums of cash. For example, cash jumped from $194 million in 2019 to $2.6 billion in 2021.

The cash it raised back then has been quickly depleted since, with Plug Power’s free cash flow loss surging from $530 million in 2021 to $1.016 billion in 2024. Cash was reported at just $403 million last year, with total debt at nearly $1.8 billion.

www.barchart.com
www.barchart.com

Plug Power announced on Oct. 8, 2025, that it had raised approximately $370 million in gross proceeds through a warrant inducement agreement with a single institutional investor.

Warrants originally issued in March 2025 to purchase 185,430,464 shares at $2.00 per share were exercised.

PLUG stock has been on a recovery rally, up 140% from its lows a month ago. As part of the deal, the company issued new warrants exercisable at $7.75 per share, which is a big premium to the $3.40 price today. This can lead to an additional $1.4 billion if fully exercised. It’s essentially a call option for the investor as “payment” for exercising the earlier warrant.

However, this is nowhere near enough to sustain the company for two or more quarters. Free cash flow was -$376.4 million in just Q2 alone.

Plug Power is fighting an uphill battle to fund its business, and it may take years until it can make notable progress with sales, let alone profitability. It will take multiple billions in cash to get there.

The situation is clearly unsustainable. Earlier this year, management launched Project Quantum Leap to target $150 million to $200 million in annual expense reductions through workforce reductions and discretionary spending cuts, among others.

Former CEO Andy Marsh announced this plan in response to slower-than-anticipated market development and the need to accelerate the path to profitability. Cash burn rate did come down, but it’s still not enough to keep Plug Power sustainable.

Marsh was replaced by the new CEO, Jose Luis Crespo, on Friday, Oct. 10.

If you are comfortable treating the position like a venture bet, with 80%-100% downside, but 5x-10x upside long term, you can make the bet just like the institutional investor has done. The October warrant deal removed the immediate need for cash, but Plug is likely to run out again within two quarters.

I would not buy if you can’t stomach large swings. Another dilutive event is likely within the next 6 months. Outstanding shares have tripled from 2019 to 2024, and 2025-2030 could be even worse.

Analysts also remain skeptical. The mean price target of $2.36 is well below the current price.

www.barchart.com
www.barchart.com

On the date of publication, Omor Ibne Ehsan did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

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