Fears that it would take weeks or even months for flight schedules in the US to return to normal in the wake of the US federal government shutdown do not appear to be coming true and the busy upcoming holiday season should be normal for travel, experts say.
That is at least in part because air traffic controllers are quickly returning to work, according to the Department of Transportation.
The federal government deemed air traffic controllers essential workers, which meant they were supposed to work without pay during the government shutdown, but some called in sick, resigned or took second jobs, while others worked overtime. That meant thousands of flights were cancelled during the crisis, which ended last week.
After the Senate and House passed legislation to reopen the government, the transportation secretary, Sean Duffy, said that the controllers would receive 70% of their back pay within 24 to 48 hours of the shutdown ending and the remainder a week later. This week, there was a significant reduction in the number of controllers who called off from work, according to the transportation department.
“Already we are seeing less flight cancellations and delays,” said Mike Arnot, spokesperson for the aviation analytics company Cirium. “That’s a testament to the controllers, right? Now that the controllers are going to get their back pay, finally, it probably will relatively quickly re-establish stability in the US airline industry.”
In short, “Thanksgiving shouldn’t be impacted at all”, Arnot said.
Before the shutdown started on 1 October, the country was already dealing with a shortage of air traffic controllers because of retirements and difficulty finding people who could complete the necessary training.
The deficiency worsened during the shutdown because 13,000 controllers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration staff had to work without pay.
As such, on 6 November, the Federal Aviation Administration ordered domestic airlines to gradually reduce the number of flights at 40 of the busiest airports by 10% to ensure public safety amidst absences and stress among traffic controllers. That weekend, almost 7% of the more than 72,000 scheduled departures from the US were canceled, according to Cirium. On a normal day, about 1% of US departures are canceled.
But on Wednesday, even before Donald Trump approved the bill to reopen the government, there were only four staffing triggers, meaning delays when air traffic facilities are understaffed, according to the transportation department. That was down from 81 on 8 November.
As such, Duffy announced that the agency would freeze flight reductions, which had been slated to expand on Friday, and instead stick with the 6% cut.
In addition to Duffy’s pledge that controllers would be paid quickly after the shutdown ended, Trump, who criticized air traffic controllers who took time off during the shutdown, said that those who had continued to work during the shutdown would receive a $10,000 bonus.
The homeland security secretary, Kristi Noem, then said on Thursday that TSA officers “who showed up every day to serve and protect the American people” would also receive a $10,000 bonus.
Noem did not specify the criteria that determined which TSA officers would receive payment.
Johnny J Jones, secretary-treasurer of the American Federation of Government Employees’ TSA Council 100, the union representing TSA officials, told the New York Times Thursday that the bonuses were “great for some, but it’s better to give everybody a little something because they all suffered and they all endured hard times during the last 43 days”.
If staffing levels return to normal this weekend, the FAA will probably start allowing airlines to restore their usual flight schedules early next week, Henry Harteveldt, airline industry analyst at Atmosphere Research Group, said.
“Paying the air traffic controllers the money they earned during the shutdown will also go a long way towards ensuring that the controllers return to work, reducing the stress that they have felt during the shutdown and allowing them to better concentrate on their jobs,” Harteveldt said.
After a 35-day government shutdown ended in 2019, it took more than two months for controllers to receive full back pay, Nick Daniels, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, told the Associated Press. He predicted during this shutdown that it would take months for air travel to return to normal.
A spokesperson for the association said Daniels was not available for comment.
Despite the less-than-expected turbulence at airports after the government reopened, some uncertainty remains.
Pilots worked additional hours because of delays during the shutdown and, in some cases, reached the maximum time they were allowed to work, according to Dennis Tajer, a spokesperson for Allied Pilots Association, the union for American Airlines pilots. That not only caused pilots additional stress, but airlines then also had to call up reserves.
If the weather causes delays in the coming weeks, airlines could face a shortage of pilots, Tajer said.
“It all depends on Mother Nature,” Tajer said. “That truly will be the key.”
Even once the remaining air traffic controllers return to work – some of them retired – there will still be a shortage. The air traffic controllers’ association stated before the shutdown that there were 10,800 controllers, which was about 3,800 fewer than the FAA’s target level.
“It’s going to take two or three years to get enough air traffic controllers to approach the full number,” said Kit Darby, an aviation consultant.
On Thursday, 3.5% of flights departing in the US were cancelled, marking the fourth straight day in which that percentage had declined, according to Cirium. Also, 94% of flights left within 15 minutes of the departure time, compared with 75% a week earlier.
“We believe the impact of the shutdown will be muted by Monday,” Arnot stated.
