January Hiring Tops Expectations, but Economist Warns of Risks on the Horizon

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a delayed January jobs report on Wednesday, beating economists expectations and showing the US economy added 130,000 jobs in the first month of 2026.

Mark Zandi says don’t get comfortable with the upbeat data.

The figure is substantially higher than the 75,000 jobs that economists anticipated, but the Moody’s Analytics economist isn’t optimistic that the growth will continue.

Zandi has repeatedly warned that the US economy is on shaky ground, and could tumble into a recession. In a post on X on Wednesday, he said that the latest jobs data didn’t do anything to ease his concerns.

“The job market remains fragile and highly vulnerable,” he said. “Yes, payroll employment increased by 130,000 in January, but given the big downward revisions to history, there has been no job growth since last April (Liberation Day).”

Zandi also highlighted that almost all the January jobs growth came from the healthcare industry, something he doesn’t think bodes well for the broader US economy.

“Without healthcare, the economy would be losing lots of jobs and unemployment headed higher,” he told Business Insider. “There are good reasons why healthcare is adding jobs, but it shows how vulnerable the job market and economy are if healthcare stumbled or even slowed its hiring.”

That’s not his only concern. Zandi also warned that a fragile labor market could be further compromised by the impact of AI, something he thinks is approaching quickly. While AI hasn’t yet appeared in macro data, Zandi maintains that it is likely to change in the near future.

The economist added that he thinks rising layoffs will be the clearest indication that the labor market is starting to crack. Companies such as Amazon, Meta, and Pinterest have announced steep job cuts recently, and layoffs throughout the economy touched the highest level since 2009 last month.

“The best real-time measure of layoffs is weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,” Zandi added. “They are running close to 225k per week, which is low. If they rise above 250k on a consistent basis, the job market is in trouble.”