Job Market Winners, Losers: Job Stayers, New Graduates, White-Collar

The winners and losers of the workforce are coming into sharper focus.

If you’re looking for roles in healthcare or service work, you may have a very different experience than the white-collar workforce or new grads.

Overall, the latest jobs data shows that the labor market isn’t looking too shabby; the number of payrolls added in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ May report exceeded economists’ expectations, and the unemployment rate held steady.

But that doesn’t mean all workers are navigating the labor market with ease. Instead, some are faring better than others. Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, said the new jobs report reflects that divide.

“The headline number says the train keeps chugging along,” Stahle said, “but at the same time, not everybody is experiencing that same thing.”

Here’s who’s winning in the job market right now

A few industries stood out in the most recent jobs report.

Employment in the private education and health services sector and the leisure and hospitality sector swelled. They alone accounted for over 100,000 new payrolls in May, and over the last three months have added around 374,000 jobs. In short, if you’re trying to find a job in food service or home healthcare, the job market is in your favor.

Other sectors that added roles in May include construction and retail trade, although not at the same clip.

Daniel Zhao, lead economist at Glassdoor, said those service sectors have powered job growth, but “all of them have slowed in the first half of 2025 compared to the back half of 2024.”

There were also some winners in the white-collar world. Job-stayers — whether they still want to be there or not — are at least reaping some financial rewards. Average hourly earnings for workers in the information sector, which includes many aspects of tech, shot up from a year ago, as well as pay for those in professional and business services.

For the white-collar workers who are waiting out the Big Stay, that’s a win. Indeed, job stayers have a bit of a financial edge right now: Their raises are now slightly outpacing those of job switchers, per the Atlanta Federal Reserve, a big change from the days of the Great Resignation.

Who’s losing in the job market right now

White-collar workers who are actively seeking a new role probably aren’t feeling too hot; neither are new grads.

Employment growth in the information sector has been nonexistent since February, while employment fell by 19,000 in professional and business services during that time. The job switching pay premium has evaporated, and companies are taking longer to fill available roles.

One subsection of white-collar workers has reason to be especially nervous: Middle managers are getting flattened out of corporate structures in the name of efficiency.

Then, of course, there’s the bottom rung of the labor market: New graduates trying to land a full-time role. The share of recent college graduates with jobs that don’t require a degree ticked up in March, according to the New York Federal Reserve’s analysis. Similarly, that data shows recent college graduates ages 22 to 27 had higher unemployment rates compared to the larger 16- to 65-year-old workforce, a reversal from longer-term historical trends.

“There’s fewer people coming in, fewer people heading out,” Guy Berger, the director of economic research at The Burning Glass Institute, said. “That mix tends to favor established workers who tend to be older and tends to hurt younger people trying to get their foot in the door.”

Stahle said college and high school graduates are entering a frozen labor market where the quits rate is low, people are staying put, and employers aren’t really looking for new folks.

“We’re seeing unemployment rates rise most notably for those younger workers, college graduate-age workers — which is very different than what we’ve seen in the past, where those workers tend to do pretty well,” Stahle said.

Are you a job seeker, middle manager, or new grad with a story to share? Contact these reporters at [email protected] and [email protected].