Kennesaw State Owls vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders prediction, pick for NCAAM on Thursday 2/12/26

Kennesaw State is 14-9 and 10-1 in its own building, and this is the kind of Conference USA night where the rim sounds louder than it should. Middle Tennessee shows up 11-12 with a 2-6 road mark, still trying to turn effort into points. The market sits Kennesaw State -3.5 with a 146.5 total, which is basically daring both teams to embrace the volatility. These two already played a one-point game in December, so nobody gets to pretend this is free. I expect a fast, physical possession fight where the glass decides who gets to settle. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Kennesaw State Owls and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The Owls live on extra shots, posting a 37.2% offensive rebounding rate that ranks 14th, while Middle Tennessee sits at 26.6%, which is a real possession gap. Kennesaw also grabs 12.7 offensive boards per game, fifth nationally, and that’s how a team covers without a shooting heater. The second edge is disruption, because Middle Tennessee coughs it up on 16.3% of possessions and Kennesaw forces turnovers at an 18.0% clip, which is another set of free possessions. The shot-making volatility is real on both sides since Middle Tennessee takes threes on 43.2% of attempts and Kennesaw is even higher at 46.2%, but the difference is who can score when the jumper turns cold. Middle Tennessee’s 47.7% two-point offense runs straight into a defense that allows 49.4% on twos and owns a 13.8% block rate, best in the country, so the inside bailout lane is the one most likely to get erased.

The names map cleanly to those levers, which is why I’m comfortable laying a short number. Simeon Cottle (G) is the home side’s late-clock oxygen at 20.2 points, and he’s the guy who keeps the offense from dying when the possessions get ugly. Frankquon Sherman (F) is the real accelerant at 8.3 rebounds with 3.2 offensive boards, and that is the exact profile that turns misses into points and points into separation. Braedan Lue (F) adds another layer because his rim work keeps the Owls from paying for mistakes, and that’s the hidden value of an elite block identity.

Kamari Lands (G) leads Middle Tennessee at 13.8 points, and the cover path is simple: survive the rim wall, cash threes, and keep the game in one-score air. Torey Alston (F) is the only true answer to the possession problem at 7.8 boards, and he’s coming off 21 points in the 89-88 overtime loss, which tells you the role is heavy right now. If Middle Tennessee is going to steal this, it has to win the three-point math and avoid the live-ball mistakes that feed putbacks and runouts.

MTSU vs. Kennesaw State pick, best bet

Middle Tennessee can win the whistle and win the arc, and that’s how a short dog survives. Middle Tennessee draws more free throws at 18.2 attempts per game and 0.245 FTA per play, while Kennesaw sits at 15.9 and 0.192, so a friendlier whistle keeps the margin tight. Middle Tennessee also just played an 89-88 overtime game, and that kind of drain can show up late. When legs go, turnovers climb and box-outs soften, which feeds Kennesaw’s 37.2% offensive rebounding edge and 18.0% forced-turnover pressure. Kevin Miller (G) is expected out, and that shrinks the road ball-handling rotation. Fewer steady handlers makes that 16.3% turnover rate more likely to leak into live-ball giveaways. Brandon Stroud (illness) is day-to-day for Kennesaw State Owls, and that’s the one real home-side wrinkle. If his minutes get capped, spacing gets shakier, which raises three-point variance and slightly shrinks the edge. The travel is only 161 miles, so this is not a body-clock excuse game. That keeps pace near 70 and keeps the total honest, but it doesn’t erase the possession gap. Kennesaw’s 10-1 home posture is the loudest intangible in the file. Home energy shows up in effort levers, and offensive rebounding is the purest effort stat in basketball. The market sits at -3.5 because the first meeting was a 68-67 coin game. That pricing respects shooting variance, but it still asks the road side to solve second shots and pressure for 40 minutes.

I’m laying Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +3.5 and taking Kennesaw -3.5 at the board number, and I’ll play it to -4.5. Kennesaw should lean into two-shot possessions, crash from the wings, and turn every miss into a second chance. That plan cashes the 37.2% ORB lever and keeps the offense alive even if threes wobble. Middle Tennessee should hunt early threes and treat every defensive rebound like a stop-and-a-half. That is the only way to keep the shot-attempt gap from turning into a four-minute margin swing. This loses if Middle Tennessee wins the three-point battle and holds the defensive glass, because the possession edge disappears.

Predicted score: Kennesaw State 75, Middle Tennessee 70.

Best bet: Kennesaw State -3.5 (-110) vs. MTSU

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