Kentucky Derby 2025 predictions, horses, time, picks, odds: Best bets from expert who hit last year's winner

Saturday’s Kentucky Derby 2025 features no horse with odds longer than 30-1. There are nine 2025 Kentucky Derby horses listed at 30-1 and another five at 20-1. Since 2000, four horses at 50-1 or longer have gone on to win the race. The favorite has won just 56 times over the last 150 Kentucky Derby races. Journalism enters as the 3-1 favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, with Sovereignty at 5-1 and Sandman at 6-1. The last time a favorite won the Kentucky Derby was in 2018, when Justify crossed the finish line, making it six straight wins by a favorite. Will Journalism buck the current 2025 Kentucky Derby trends and win, and should you back him with your 2025 Kentucky Derby bets? Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions.

A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.

In 2015, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta, which paid $1,268.20 for $2. In 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.

In May of last year, Menez nailed 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 jackpot. This year, he hit the winner and exacta in the Holy Bull Stakes and the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby. Anyone who has followed him on betting apps like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could have been way up.

For the Run for the Roses, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Menez’ surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman (6-1), even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top 2025 Kentucky Derby favorites. Sandman won the Arkansas Derby, finishing ahead of two other horses in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, Publisher (20-1) and Coal Battle (30-1). Menez, however, does not like closers, who are dependent on a fast pace up front.

Those horses tend to lose ground on the far turn, and Menez sees that being the case again this year. He also sees Sandman’s Kentucky Derby value as being inflated due to his Arkansas Derby win, which he attributed to an “enormous pace meltdown.” Menez thinks a late charge to a third-place finish is the best-case scenario for Sandman, making him a horse to fade when finalizing how to bet the Kentucky Derby 2025.

Another curveball: Menez is high on Burnham Square, even though he is a 12-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Burnham Square recorded a 1 3/4-length victory over Tappan Street at Gulfstream Park in the Holy Bull Stakes.

The gelded son of Liam’s Map has run just two races since, finishing fourth at the Fountain of Youth before winning the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in April. The horse will be ridden by reigning Kentucky Derby-winning jockey, Brian Hernandez Jr., who was aboard Mystik Dan last year. Hernandez also rode Burnham Square at his Blue Grass Stakes victory, giving this horse the continuity needed to compete at Churchill Downs. See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, picks

Menez’ top pick is a horse who “is bred to only get better with the added distance.” He’s also high on a double-digit longshot who owns “the most awesome turn of foot of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls.” Menez is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez’ picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who called Mystik Dan as an 18-1 live longshot in last year’s race.