Summary
The current bull market, which started in October 2022 and has seen the S&P 500 rise almost 70%, has endured high inflation, economic uncertainty, a credit rating downgrade of the U.S. Treasury, a hard-fought election, and the onset of new tariffs and trade wars. Now, a military conflict in the Middle East has erupted — and over the weekend, the U.S. joined the fray. Stocks now faces uncertainty over the potential for retaliation and global next steps. Iran could take action to curtail the flow of global oil supplies. It also could strike U.S. military installations, potentially provoking a further American response. China and Russia could weigh in with their opinions or with aid. Outside of the stock market, we expect the price of oil may rise on a temporary basis, gold likely will continue to rally as a safe haven, and the dollar should strengthen. (If these non-stock financial indicators don’t behave as anticipated, that may signal other, deeper problems for markets.) As for equities over the intermediate term, the sustainability of the current bull market may depend on how quickly the Mideast conflict is resolved. In the near term, the U.S. employment environment is healthy, earnings growth is solid, and there is room for interest rates to continue lower. Those are important
