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For the first time in at least three decades, geopolitical risks are triggering a jump in mining stocks rather than a sell-off.
The shift marks the sector’s transformation from a bet on industrial growth into strategic investments linked with security, supply control, and state power, according to Jefferies analysts.
The reversal highlights a broader change in global markets. Where geopolitical risks once meant weaker growth expectations and lower demand for raw materials, investors are increasingly treating conflict as constraints on physical supply — and as a reason to own the assets that produce it.
Over the past six months, investments in the S&P 500 (^GSPC) have returned roughly 8%. Over the same period, the US mining sector (XME) has gained 48%, while internationally, the sector (PICK) has rallied by 57%.
Historically, mining stocks have been connected to global growth, leaving them vulnerable during periods of volatility. Trade wars, military conflicts, and sanctions typically tighten financial conditions, slow emerging-market demand, and delay capital expenditures — all negative for metals consumption and mining companies’ margins.
That relationship has broken down over the past year. The war in Ukraine and the White House’s tariff regime have disrupted global metals flows, while tensions in the Middle East have raised risks around energy and shipping. The ongoing trade war between the US and China has triggered export controls on critical minerals and industrial technologies.
New supply has been constrained by tighter environmental policies in Western countries and resource nationalism movements in Latin America and Africa — such as in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which controls roughly three-quarters of cobalt mined globally.
At the same time, governments are pushing to secure domestic access to metals tied to defense, the energy transition, and electrical infrastructure.
“Geopolitical risk no longer signals falling consumption and instead tends to signal tighter supply, export controls, sanctions, and inventory hoarding,” Jefferies analysts Christopher LaFemina and Giovanni Holmes wrote in a recent client note. That “raises scarcity premiums and effectively reduces miners’ cost of capital.”
Mining stocks are also benefiting on two fronts from the AI boom.
A widespread “AI scare trade” rotation has driven investors out of soft assets — such as software, real estate, and financial services — and into those tied to energy, materials, and physical production.
