Minnesota 2026 Poll: Democrats Lead GOP as Voters Cite Threats to Democracy

Voters Split on Elimination of ICE

A new Emerson College Polling survey of Minnesota likely voters finds Democratic candidates for office leading Republican counterparts for governor, U.S. Senate, and on a generic state legislature ballot. In the election to replace retiring Governor Tim Walz, Amy Klobuchar leads the hypothetical matchups against Republican Speaker of the Minnesota House Lisa Demuth, 51% to 38%, and MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell, 53% to 31%. 

“Independent voters in the race for Governor support Amy Klobuchar against potential Republican opponents, by 27 points against State Rep. Demuth, and 40 points against Mike Lindell,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. 

Looking ahead to the Senate race, Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig lead Republican Michele Tafoya in hypothetical matchups. Between Democratic-Farmer-Labor Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya, Flanagan leads 47% to 41%, while 12% support someone else or are undecided. In a matchup between Tafoya and Angie Craig, 47% support Craig, 40% Tafoya, and 13% support someone else or are undecided.

In a generic 2026 ballot test for the Minnesota House of Representatives between a Democratic-Farmer-Labor candidate and a Republican candidate, 49% support the DFL candidate and 42% the Republican candidate. All seats in the Minnesota House are up for election in 2026, currently split evenly between the two parties. 

A majority of Minnesota voters (56%) disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president, while 39% approve. Forty-seven percent disapprove of the job Tim Walz is doing as governor, while 41% approve. 

A plurality of voters (28%) say threats to democracy are the top issue facing Minnesota, followed by immigration (17%) and the economy (16%). Ten percent wrote-in issues related to Immigration Customs and Enforcement (ICE) as their top issue, and 3% wrote in fraud. 

“This is the first statewide survey that threats to democracy topped economic concerns,” Kimball noted. “Nearly half of Democrats, 49%, note it as their top issue, along with 29% of independents, while a plurality of Republicans, 31%, find immigration to be the top issue.”

Minnesota voters find ICE’s presence in communities to be more harmful than beneficial, 60% to 36%. This compares to 57% nationally who say the same.

Voters were asked if they prefer the Trump or Biden administration’s policies on immigration: 42% prefer the Trump administration’s policies, 35% Biden’s, and 23% neither. 

Forty-six percent of voters oppose eliminating ICE, 42% favor, and 12% are unsure.

Voters were asked if, based on what they have seen or heard, they think the ICE officer’s actions were justified or not justified in the shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis. A majority, 57%, think the officer’s actions were not justified, while 34% think it was justified, and 8% are unsure. 

When asked the same about the shooting of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis, 61% think the officer’s actions were not justified, 26% think it was justified, and 13% are unsure. 

A majority of Minnesota voters (59%) disapprove of the Trump administration’s handling of the shooting of Alex Pretti, 28% approve, and 13% are unsure.

• 94% of Democrats and 64% of independents disapprove of the administration’s handling, while 62% of Republicans approve.

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling Minnesota survey was conducted February 6-8, 2026. The overall sample of Minnesota likely voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times. 

Data was collected by contacting a voter list of cellphones via MMS-to-web text (lists provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by PureSpectrum. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English. 

All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below.