MSU basketball at Wisconsin prediction, preview, TV info, betting line
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Updated Feb. 12, 2026, 4:25 p.m. ET
• What: Michigan State at Wisconsin
• When: 8 p.m. (ET) Friday
• Where: Kohl Center, Madison, Wisconsin
• TV/Radio: FOX/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 195 (MSU broadcast), 84 (Wisconsin broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 20-4 overall and 10-3 in the Big Ten, and is ranked No. 10 by both the Associated Press and USA TODAY Coaches poll, No. 11 in the NET rankings used by the NCAA tournament selection committee and No. 10 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Wisconsin is 17-7 overall, 9-4 in the Big Ten and unranked by the AP and Coaches polls. The Badgers are No. 37 in the NET rankings and No. 36 via Kenpom.
• Betting line: MSU -1.5
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 757-306 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Wisconsin — Greg Gard is 230-124 in his 11th season as a head coach, all with the Badgers.
• Series: MSU leads 86-69 all-time. The two teams split last season, with MSU winning at Breslin and Wisconsin winning in the Big Ten tournament.
MORE: Spartan Speak Podcast: After Illinois win, where is MSU’s basketball team headed?
Projected lineups
MSU
C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 10.0
PF (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 12.8
SF (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 11.4
SG (6) Jordan Scott (6-7) 5.4
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 15.1
Wisconsin
C (31) Nolan Winter (7-0) 13.9
PF (32) Aleksas Bieliauskas (6-10) 4.5
SF (7) Andrew Rohde (6-6) 6.4
SG (25) John Blackwell (6-4) 18.7
PG (2) Nick Boyd (6-3) 20.2
• MSU update: The Spartans are coming off their most significant win of the season thus far, 85-82 in overtime over Illinois on Saturday night. The win halted a two-game losing streak and three games of subpar play, and put MSU back in the Big Ten title race, even if the Spartans would need some help to repeat as champions. They can help themselves by beating Wisconsin on Friday night in Madison, before home games against UCLA and Ohio State next week that would give MSU a decent shot at getting to 23-4 overall and 13-3 in the Big Ten, before beginning a nasty four-game stretch to close the regular season — at Purdue, at Indiana, Rutgers at home, at Michigan.
MSU is the No. 4 defense in college basketball, per Kenpom’s efficiency rankings. The Spartans are the best rebounding team in the country — No. 1 on the defensive glass, No. 5 on the offensive glass. Point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. leads the nation in assists, at 9.1 per game. With guard Divine Ugochukwu lost for the season with a broken foot, the concern is the back-up for Fears. Tom Izzo said Wednesday that he trusts Denham Wojcik in that role. In an emergency, you’d likely see freshman Jordan Scott running the point.
MORE: Couch: Michigan State’s win over Illinois makes it easier to imagine the Spartans growing into contenders
• Wisconsin update: The Badgers have two of the better wins in all of college basketball — Tuesday at Illinois in overtime and Jan. 10 at Michigan. They’re still the only team to beat the Wolverines this season. The common theme in both of those games — they made a ton of 3s. Wisconsin hit 16 of 36 at Illinois and 15 of 33 3s at Michigan. Those two performances beyond the arc weren’t out of character. The Badgers have hit 14 or more 3-pointers in a game eight times this season. Wisconsin make a reasonable 35% of their long-range shots — about the same as MSU — but 50.8% of the Badgers’ field goal attempts are 3s, whereas only 36.6% of MSU’s shots are from long range. Wisconsin has six players who’ve made 25 or more 3-pointers this season.
• Matchup analysis: The Badgers have one of the top backcourts in the sport in San Diego State transfer Nick Boyd and junior John Blackwell, a Bloomfield Hills native who Tom Izzo wishes he’d recruited harder earlier. Boyd is a quick guard who will get in the paint to create and let it fly from deep. Blackwell is a future pro, I think. He’s a do-it-all guard, with length, strength and athleticism who can score against defense at the rim and beyond the arc. He’s a good passer, too. Wisconsin essentially has two lead guards on the floor with Blackwell and Boyd. Those two make this team tough. What makes the Badgers an interesting matchup is the number of long-range shooters they have, including their big guys. Seven-footer Nolan winter is 25-for-76 from deep, 6-foot-10 Austin Rapp is 33-for-99, and 6-10 Aleksas Bieliauskas is 16-for-49.
Wisconsin wins by hitting 3s and free throws — the Badgers’ collectively are shooting better than 80% from the line in Big Ten play — and by turning the ball over less than any Big Ten team. They don’t allow offensive rebounds by their opponents. That’s their formula. And they have a backcourt that’s as good a pair as any in the conference. That said, they’re average to below average in a lot of other areas.
This is a Wisconsin team that isn’t afraid of some pace, but forgoes offensive rebounds to get back defensively. It’ll be interesting to see if the Spartans can find some success in transition. That’ll begin on the defensive end, getting the Badgers to miss shots. Blackman is the second straight tough defensive matchup for Jordan Scott. And Jeremy Fears has to stay out of foul trouble defending Boyd.
RELATED: Couch: Michigan State’s Jeremy Fears Jr. is in danger of being defined by his antics
• Prediction: MSU has been the better team over the course of the season. But the Spartans are yet to play well on the road in a hostile environment — Nebraska, Rutgers and Minnesota are the only three they’ve experienced. Until they do, it’s hard to pick them in one, especially against a Wisconsin team that’s dangerous and playing well.
• Make it: Wisconsin 74, MSU 72
MORE: Couch: By transforming MSU Athletics, J Batt hopes to build a sustainable enterprise — and winning football
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
