October Nymex natural gas (NGV25) on Friday closed down -0.051 (-1.74%).
Oct nat-gas prices on Friday added to Thursday’s sharp losses and dropped to a 3-week low. Nat-gas prices fell Friday on negative carryover from Thursday when the EIA reported that nat-gas inventories rose +90 bcf in the week ended September 12, above expectations of +81 bcf and well above the five-year average for this time of year of +74 bcf. That brings current US nat-gas inventories to +6.3% above their 5-year seasonal average, a sign of abundant supplies.
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Cooler US weather forecasts, which will curb natural-gas demand from electricity providers to power air conditioning, are also weighing on natural-gas prices. Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Friday that forecasts shifted cooler for most of the US for September 24-28.
Higher US nat-gas production has recently been a bearish factor for prices. Last Tuesday, the EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas production by +0.2% to 106.63 bcf/day from August’s estimate of 106.40 bcf/day. US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs recently posting a 2-year high.
US (lower-48) dry gas production on Friday was 107.6 bcf/day (+6.1% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Friday was 73.1 bcf/day (-4.6% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Friday were 15.3 bcf/day (+0.2% w/w), according to BNEF.
As a supportive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended September 13 rose +0.83% y/y to 81,346 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending September 13 rose +2.98% y/y to 4,265,230 GWh.
Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended September 12 rose +90 bcf, above the market consensus of +81 bcf and above the 5-year weekly average of +74 bcf. As of September 12, nat-gas inventories were down -0.3% y/y, but were +6.3% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of September 16, gas storage in Europe was 81% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 87% full for this time of year.