September Nymex natural gas (NGU25) on Wednesday closed down -0.014 (-0.51%).
Sep nat-gas prices on Wednesday settled lower and matched Tuesday’s 9.25-month nearest-futures low. Nat-gas prices have retreated over the past month as summer weather cooled and the US boosted its nat-gas production. Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Wednesday that forecasts shifted cooler across most of the US for August 25-29, which will curb nat-gas demand from electricity providers to power air conditioning.
Ramped-up US nat-gas production is another bearish factor for prices. Last Tuesday, the EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas production by +0.5% to 106.44 bcf/day from July’s estimate of 105.9 bcf/day. The EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US nat-gas production by +0.7% to 106.09 from July’s 105.4 bcf/day forecast. US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs recently posting a 2-year high.
US (lower-48) dry gas production on Wednesday was 107.5 bcf/day (+5.2% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Wednesday was 79.5 bcf/day (+6.4% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Wednesday were 14.8 bcf/day (-7.4% w/w), according to BNEF.
As a supportive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended August 16 rose +7.1% y/y to 99,160 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending August 16 rose +2.7% y/y to 4,264,139 GWh.
The consensus is that Thursday’s weekly EIA nat-gas inventories will increase by +18 bcf for the week ended August 15, below the five-year average for the week of +35 bcf.
Last Thursday’s weekly EIA report was slightly bearish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended August 1 rose +56 bcf, slightly above the consensus of +54 bcf and well above the 5-year weekly average of +33 bcf. As of August 8, nat-gas inventories were down -2.4% y/y, but were +6.6% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of August 18, gas storage in Europe was 74% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 82% full for this time of year.
