By Dr Renée Friedman, Global Head of Research, EXANTE
Private capital is entering one of the most turbulent periods in decades. Family offices – stewards of an estimated US$6 trillion globally – face a convergence of risks and opportunities that will reshape how wealth is preserved and grown. But the lessons extend well beyond ultra-high-net-worth families. From institutional managers to sophisticated retail investors, the forces at play will shape global markets in ways that no investor can ignore.
EXANTE’s latest report, Navigating the Future of Private Capital and the Family Office, highlights five themes that should be on every investor’s radar.
1. Geopolitics is now the dominant market risk
According to BlackRock’s 2025 Family Office Survey, 84% of family offices say geopolitics is now central to capital allocation decisions, while Goldman Sachs found 61% cite conflict as the greatest investment risk. Protectionism and tariffs are becoming the “new normal,” with 77% of family offices expecting economic protectionism to increase. For broader investors, this environment means that traditional “safe” allocations, such as developed market equities or sovereign bonds, carry risks that once belonged to emerging markets. Diversification, particularly across currencies, is no longer optional but essential.
2. Wealth transfer is accelerating — and changing allocations
Up to US$83 trillion in wealth will change hands over the next two decades, according to UBS. Unlike prior generations, heirs are younger, more globally mobile and more digitally native. Already, Asia-Pacific is forecast to lead global wealth growth at 9% annually through 2029, far outpacing North America (4%) and Western Europe (5%). This generational and geographic shift is likely to accelerate demand for digital assets, sustainability-linked products and technology exposure. Wealth advisors, family offices and institutional investors need to anticipate a different set of priorities and philosophies to guide that capital.
3. Private equity’s cooling, but alternatives are diversifying
Family offices cut back on private equity allocations in 2025, wary of tariff uncertainties, valuation pressures, and doubts about how private credit will weather a downturn. Yet stronger IPO and M&A pipelines are beginning to draw capital elsewhere. For broader investors, this suggests opportunities in public market alternatives, liquidity-focussed strategies, and sectors that can absorb capital pivoting away from illiquid assets.
4. Digital assets are moving mainstream
The report finds that 33% of family offices now hold cryptocurrency, up from 26% in 2023. ETFs and ETNs tied to Bitcoin and Ethereum are driving adoption by institutional investors, as regulatory clarity – from the SEC, MiCA, and the FCA – is reducing custody and compliance concerns. Asia-Pacific leads the charge, with 39% of family offices considering future crypto allocations. For all investors, the digital asset class is shifting from speculative to strategic, both as a growth play and as a tail-risk hedge.
5. AI is both an investment theme and a tool
Eighty-six percent (86%) of family offices report exposure to AI in some form, whether via direct tech investments, AI-focused venture capital, or infrastructure such as data centres. But it’s not just a thematic bet: AI is being integrated into portfolio analysis and is being used to improve operational efficiency and risk management. For investors across the spectrum, the AI revolution is a double opportunity, capturing upside in markets while enhancing their own decision-making processes.
The timeless ballast: gold
Even amid digital adoption, traditional safe havens remain in demand. Gold has surged over 40% this year, driven by dollar weakness and central bank demand. Physical bullion, mining stocks, and gold ETFs remain a cornerstone for risk-averse investors. The broader lesson: diversification across old and new stores of value is the best defence against volatility.
The bottom line
Family offices may be the laboratories where the future of private capital is tested, but the implications reach far wider. In a world where the rules of markets are being rewritten by geopolitics, technology, and generational shifts, success will hinge on agility: the ability to rebalance across jurisdictions, currencies, and asset classes while embracing new tools.
For every investor, from institutions to individuals, the challenge is not whether to adapt, but how quickly.
About Renée
Dr Renée Friedman is Global Head of Research at EXANTE, where she leads analysis on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and private capital trends. A former Managing Editor at the Economist Intelligence Unit and fund manager in the City of London, she has advised institutions from the UK Parliament to the UNDP. She holds a PhD in Economics from London Business School.
Subscribe to her team’s research here: exante.eu/subscription
EXANTE’s full report, Global Family Office Review 2025: Navigating the Future of Private Capital and the Family Office, is available for download here.
By Dr Renée Friedman, Global Head of Research, EXANTE
Private capital is entering one of the most turbulent periods in decades. Family offices – stewards of an estimated US$6 trillion globally – face a convergence of risks and opportunities that will reshape how wealth is preserved and grown. But the lessons extend well beyond ultra-high-net-worth families. From institutional managers to sophisticated retail investors, the forces at play will shape global markets in ways that no investor can ignore.
EXANTE’s latest report, Navigating the Future of Private Capital and the Family Office, highlights five themes that should be on every investor’s radar.
1. Geopolitics is now the dominant market risk
According to BlackRock’s 2025 Family Office Survey, 84% of family offices say geopolitics is now central to capital allocation decisions, while Goldman Sachs found 61% cite conflict as the greatest investment risk. Protectionism and tariffs are becoming the “new normal,” with 77% of family offices expecting economic protectionism to increase. For broader investors, this environment means that traditional “safe” allocations, such as developed market equities or sovereign bonds, carry risks that once belonged to emerging markets. Diversification, particularly across currencies, is no longer optional but essential.
2. Wealth transfer is accelerating — and changing allocations
Up to US$83 trillion in wealth will change hands over the next two decades, according to UBS. Unlike prior generations, heirs are younger, more globally mobile and more digitally native. Already, Asia-Pacific is forecast to lead global wealth growth at 9% annually through 2029, far outpacing North America (4%) and Western Europe (5%). This generational and geographic shift is likely to accelerate demand for digital assets, sustainability-linked products and technology exposure. Wealth advisors, family offices and institutional investors need to anticipate a different set of priorities and philosophies to guide that capital.
3. Private equity’s cooling, but alternatives are diversifying
Family offices cut back on private equity allocations in 2025, wary of tariff uncertainties, valuation pressures, and doubts about how private credit will weather a downturn. Yet stronger IPO and M&A pipelines are beginning to draw capital elsewhere. For broader investors, this suggests opportunities in public market alternatives, liquidity-focussed strategies, and sectors that can absorb capital pivoting away from illiquid assets.
4. Digital assets are moving mainstream
The report finds that 33% of family offices now hold cryptocurrency, up from 26% in 2023. ETFs and ETNs tied to Bitcoin and Ethereum are driving adoption by institutional investors, as regulatory clarity – from the SEC, MiCA, and the FCA – is reducing custody and compliance concerns. Asia-Pacific leads the charge, with 39% of family offices considering future crypto allocations. For all investors, the digital asset class is shifting from speculative to strategic, both as a growth play and as a tail-risk hedge.
5. AI is both an investment theme and a tool
Eighty-six percent (86%) of family offices report exposure to AI in some form, whether via direct tech investments, AI-focused venture capital, or infrastructure such as data centres. But it’s not just a thematic bet: AI is being integrated into portfolio analysis and is being used to improve operational efficiency and risk management. For investors across the spectrum, the AI revolution is a double opportunity, capturing upside in markets while enhancing their own decision-making processes.
The timeless ballast: gold
Even amid digital adoption, traditional safe havens remain in demand. Gold has surged over 40% this year, driven by dollar weakness and central bank demand. Physical bullion, mining stocks, and gold ETFs remain a cornerstone for risk-averse investors. The broader lesson: diversification across old and new stores of value is the best defence against volatility.
The bottom line
Family offices may be the laboratories where the future of private capital is tested, but the implications reach far wider. In a world where the rules of markets are being rewritten by geopolitics, technology, and generational shifts, success will hinge on agility: the ability to rebalance across jurisdictions, currencies, and asset classes while embracing new tools.
For every investor, from institutions to individuals, the challenge is not whether to adapt, but how quickly.
About Renée
Dr Renée Friedman is Global Head of Research at EXANTE, where she leads analysis on geopolitics, macroeconomics, and private capital trends. A former Managing Editor at the Economist Intelligence Unit and fund manager in the City of London, she has advised institutions from the UK Parliament to the UNDP. She holds a PhD in Economics from London Business School.
Subscribe to her team’s research here: exante.eu/subscription
EXANTE’s full report, Global Family Office Review 2025: Navigating the Future of Private Capital and the Family Office, is available for download here.
