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We came across a bullish thesis on Nutrien Ltd. on The Few Bets That Matter’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on NTR. Nutrien Ltd.’s share was trading at $72.76 as of February 24th. NTR’s trailing and forward P/E were 21.49 and 11.85 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
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Nutrien, the world’s largest fertilizer company by capacity, was formed in 2018 through the merger of PotashCorp and Agrium and operates a vertically integrated model spanning raw material mining to direct sales to farmers. Its revenue comes from four segments: Potash, where it is the #1 global producer; Nitrogen; Phosphate; and Retail through Nutrien Ag Solutions, which operates over 1,500 farm retail locations offering seeds, crop protection, and agronomic services.
The company benefits from strong organic growth driven by rising demand for fertilizers while supply remains constrained, giving it significant pricing power. Through the first nine months of 2025, Nutrien delivered structural earnings growth supported by record upstream fertilizer volumes, improved operational reliability, and higher retail earnings, prompting a second upward revision of its 2025 potash sales guidance.
Market fundamentals remain supportive, with low channel inventories globally—most notably in China, where port inventories are down by more than 1 million tons year-over-year—and limited new capacity additions expected in 2026 due to project delays.
Nitrogen supply challenges are also expected to sustain a tight supply-demand balance, reinforcing pricing power. Despite this strong outlook, the stock trades at a relatively low valuation, reflecting years of declining revenues and general underappreciation of defensive assets. Historically, periods of growth acceleration have driven substantial returns, suggesting the potential for meaningful upside if demand continues to strengthen.
Nutrien also offers a ~4% dividend yield and share buybacks, enhancing total shareholder return. Even at current levels, the stock provides a compelling opportunity for long-term investors seeking a stable, defensive play with upside optionality from both fundamental growth and market re-rating.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) by Business Model Mastery in April 2025, highlighting its deep IP portfolio, high-margin trait licensing, biologicals, and digital lock-in via LANDVisor™. CTVA’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 26.16% since our coverage. The Few Bets That Matter shares a similar view on Nutrien Ltd. (NTR), emphasizing organic growth, pricing power, and a vertically integrated fertilizer model.
