Nvidia Can’t Break Out. Wall Street Is Questioning $600 Billion AI Payoff

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Big tech’s swelling AI budgets haven’t given Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) much lift, leaving the chipmaker trading in a narrow range.

Despite record highs in October, the stock is up less than 1% since the start of the fourth quarter, a far softer pace after Nvidia’s gains in 2025.

Meta (NASDAQ:META), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are planning AI capital spending estimated at over $600 billion in 2026, yet that deluge hasn’t erased worries about returns.

Some investors fear capex may outpace revenue from AI, accelerating a pause in new spending, said JoAnne Feeney of Advisors Capital Management, saying higher outlays raise the chance compute is “digested” sooner.

Bloomberg shows sales may rise about 58% in the current year and about 28% in 2027, helping explain the valuation reset and analyst scrutiny.

Nvidia now trades at about 24 times profit estimates, down from a five-year average near 38, a shift UBS strategists say reflects cooling capex growth for infrastructure providers.

Investors will scrutinize Nvidia’s earnings and guidance on Feb. 25, with many waiting for management’s read on demand before adjusting models.