Nvidia’s Week: UBS Raises Target, Hyperscaler Spending Holds, AMD Stumbles

Nvidia closed the week at $182.81, down 1.4% from the prior week’s close. Three distinct storylines emerged that matter far more than the short-term price action. Here’s what moved the needle for Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) this week.

The Week in Numbers

Nvidia’s 1.4% decline slightly underperformed the S&P 500, down 1.29% over the same period. More notably, Nvidia lagged the semiconductor sector, as the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NYSEARCA:SMH) gained 1.51% for the week. Year-to-date, Nvidia sits down 1.98% while semiconductors broadly are up 13.21%.

That divergence is striking since NVIDIA is such a natural beneficiary of massive AI infrastructure spending that’s been announced in recent weeks.

Storyline 1: UBS Raises Price Target Ahead of GTC

UBS lifted its price target on Nvidia from $235 to $245, maintaining a Buy rating. The firm cited “positive earnings backdrop and supply chain trends” heading into next month’s GTC event, Nvidia’s annual developer conference that typically serves as a product roadmap reveal. UBS expects fiscal Q4 results to exceed company guidance, banking on robust gross margins and sustained production growth. The $245 target implies roughly 34% upside from current levels. That’s a vote of confidence that Blackwell momentum continues and that supply constraints have eased enough to meet hyperscaler demand.

Storyline 2: Hyperscaler CapEx Dictating Semiconductor Fate

Capital expenditure cycles at Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) are driving semiconductor demand.

The Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXQ) amassed $1 billion in assets, with Nvidia as a top holding alongside Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO). The fund’s 59% concentration in its top 10 holdings underscores how much of the AI chip thesis rests on a handful of players.

When hyperscalers announce CapEx plans, Nvidia’s revenue trajectory gets written in real time. Arista Networks (NYSE:ANET) raised its 2026 AI revenue guidance to $3.25 billion on Thursday, signaling that AI infrastructure spending isn’t slowing.

However, Arista’s earnings weren’t all good news. The company also mentioned they’re seeing increased interest in AMD’s systems over NVIDIA. This quote was a key reason NVIDIA shares sank 2.23% in Friday’s trading.

Yet, there’s more to the AMD story this week…

Storyline 3: Competitive Positioning Holds Firm

AMD reported disappointing Q4 results and Q1 guidance on February 3rd, with the stock down 17% post-earnings. The results weren’t bad, but expectations have grown significantly.

AMD expects significant growth in the second half of 2026 with its MI450 chip release, so we’ll get a better picture whether the MI450 can actually cut into NVIDIA’s market share at that time.

The bigger concern this week was likely Amazon. The company is spending $200 billion in capex this year, but mentioned its homegrown Trainium chips a staggering 27 times on its earnings call. The company would love to drive more usage of Trainium, but the question is whether customer demand is equal to NVIDIA’s chips. Another concern: how many Trainium chips can Amazon actually produce this year? The company will likely need to rely heavily on NVIDIA as there’s a limited amount of Trainium chips to soak up Amazon’s $200 billion in capex guidance.

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