Oddly specific Olympic men’s hockey predictions as NHL players return to the Games

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Good morning to everyone except Czech Republic’s Kristýna Kaltounková. You leave our sweet Marie-Philip Poulin alone! If you truly feel the need to injure a Canadian, I volunteer myself as tribute.

Some significant breaking news to address right off the bat: Poulin, the best women’s hockey player of all time, has been ruled out for today’s Canada versus United States rivalry game. I hope she gets well soon, as we’ll need her for overtime of the gold-medal game, where she’ll be the one to … wait, I’ve already given too much away.

Where were we? Oh right, it’s Tuesday and the Olympics are well and truly here, so let’s get you caught up on what else has already transpired and ready for the next couple of weeks.

Anticipation

Let’s be honest, you weren’t sleeping last night. You were only pretending to sleep because you know that Olympic Hockey Santa doesn’t come if you’re awake. But he’s here, and things are about to get very real.

Before we get too far, a PSA: You can find all of our Olympics coverage — a certified glut of it — on this page throughout the Games. And you can sign up for our daily Games Briefing newsletter here.

OK, let’s start on the men’s side of the hockey tournaments …

The long wait is over

We’re breaking out the bullet points. Here’s what you need to know:

• This is the first Olympic men’s hockey tournament featuring NHL players since 2014 in Sochi. There are reasons for that, but let’s just move on and say we’re all happy for the return.
• The men’s side has 12 teams competing in three divisions. The four teams within a division play each other once each in a round-robin format, followed by the playoffs. We’ll be tracking the results so you can easily keep up.
• Every team makes the playoff round. There are no “must-win” games in the round robin. That said, seeding matters, maybe a lot. The top four teams will get byes into the quarterfinal round and theoretically easier matchups the rest of the way.
• The round robin uses a 3-2-1-0 format, which is to say teams get three points for a regulation win, two for a win in OT or the shootout, one for a loss in OT or the shootout, and nothing for a regulation loss. You know, the way the NHL should do it.
• Yes, I did mention the shootout. That stupid thing is part of the tournament. In the round robin, tied games get five minutes of three-on-three overtime followed by a shootout. In the playoff rounds, it’s 10 minutes of three-on-three, then a shootout. The lone exception, thankfully, is the gold-medal game — that’s still three-on-three, but overtime lasts until there’s a winner. No shootouts with gold on the line.
• Dom Luszczyszyn’s previews for all 12 teams are here. Canada and the U.S. are the favorites, as you’d expect. By the way, Canada is in Group A, while Team USA is in Group C. That means the rivals are not playing each other in the round robin. Their only meeting, if we get one at all, will be in the elimination phase. Here’s a quick look at Dom’s odds in a handy chart:
  
• The tournament is being played with international rules, which are similar but not identical to NHL rules. Jesse Granger has a good breakdown of the key differences, with rink size most notable.
• Don’t forget about the time-zone difference, which will have games played during the day in North America. The gold-medal game is at 8:10 a.m. ET on a Sunday, so make your weekend plans accordingly. Here’s a full Olympics schedule automatically adjusted to your time zone.

Now that you know how everything works, the only thing left is to sit back and see how it all plays out. Of course, we’ve already told you, with our staff predictions that went up yesterday. But maybe you found those were lacking something. Maybe they weren’t quite … specific enough?

Rasmus Dahlin. (Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)

Oddly specific predictions

Some of you will know that I like to mark the start of each new NHL season by making oddly specific predictions for each team. (This season’s version is here.) You may also remember that we offered up five bonus predictions in the newsletter itself, one of which has already come true. Twice! Sort of. We got the goalie fight prediction right, but not the nationalities involved. Some would see that as glass half-empty, others would say half-full. In the oddly specific prediction game, we call it “a miracle that there’s anything in the glass at all.”

You’ll notice these predictions are tough to get right, because that’s the whole point. Anyone can tell you that Canada will win gold. Let’s go beyond that. Let’s get weirdly specific, with half a dozen Olympic predictions …

1. Somebody on one of the two North American teams is going to take a major penalty for a hit that likely wouldn’t be called that way in the NHL, and controversy will ensue. Bonus prediction: Against all odds, that player will not be Tom Wilson.
2. Congratulations to Sebastian Aho for briefly leading the entire tournament in scoring. Specifically, it will happen tomorrow when he scores the tournament’s first goal.
3. Connor Hellebuyck will be in Team USA’s net when the Americans open their schedule. He will not be there when it’s time to start their final game of the tournament.
4. The surprise for Team Sweden won’t be Rasmus Dahlin leading the team in scoring, but how big the gap is between him and second place.
5. There will be one (and only one) game during the tournament in which the winning goal will be scored by a player who’ll go on to be traded by his NHL team ahead of the March trade deadline.
6. Finally, some bad news, at least for the NHL’s marketing department: Team Canada and Team USA will not meet in the final, because one of them is going to get knocked out during the elimination phase in a shootout. This will lead to everyone wondering why loser-goes-home games are being decided this way. Nobody will have a good answer, other than “we really hoped this wouldn’t happen.”

(Jonathan Nackstrand / Getty Images)

Trivia Time

In the five previous Olympics to feature NHL players (1998, 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014), a total of 35 players have scored more than 10 career points.

Only three of those players are currently still active in the NHL — and none of them are going to this year’s tournament.

Can you name all three?

Hint in the photo. Answer at the bottom.

Coast to Coast

🏒 Our writers are on the ground in Italy and were there for yesterday’s first men’s practices. Here’s Michael Russo on what he saw from Team USA, and Arpon Basu on Team Canada’s burgeoning identity.

🚨 The big question: Who should start in goal for Team Canada? If you’re Canadian, you probably don’t want to read this about Jordan Binnington.

❓ Mark Lazerus has three Olympic hockey names you may not know well but might hear a lot about over the next couple of weeks.

🥅 Charlie McAvoy and his grotesquely swollen jaw have already made some news with an interesting tweet. He gets into it as part of his first Olympic diary.

🪚 Chris Pronger has joined The Athletic as a guest columnist for the Olympics. His first column is about how winning gold changed him as a player.

🔥 Pierre LeBrun talked to some of the stars who’ll be competing at the Olympics for the first time.

🇸🇰 Juraj Slafkovský is like the Sidney Crosby of Slovakia, and this could be his breakout moment. The 21-year-old is playing in his second Olympics after leading his country to its first-ever men’s hockey medal, a bronze in Beijing.

🇸🇪 Team Sweden is “not overly concerned” after William Nylander was absent from practice Tuesday on the eve of the team’s opener against Italy.

🧐 Russia isn’t competing in Milan, but Pierre and Dom looked at what that team might have looked like, and how its absence impacts everyone else’s medal chances.

🎙️ “The Athletic Hockey Show” two-part men’s Olympic hockey previews are up and running ahead of play tomorrow. Be sure to subscribe on YouTube to watch live episodes and reactions throughout the tournament, all the way through the gold-medal game.

What to Watch

The men don’t start until tomorrow, but the women are already well underway. And you know what that means …

📺 United States vs. Canada, women’s prelims
2:10 p.m. ET on USA/Peacock (U.S.), CBC (Canada)
Follow The Athletic’s live coverage here

So, who’s up for the single greatest rivalry in hockey?

This one won’t be the main event of the women’s tournament because that will almost certainly come in a rematch in the gold-medal game. Instead, consider this the undercard. It’s the moment in the movie when the hero and villain cross paths, but it’s too early to be the final fight.

(I’ll leave it to you to figure out who’s the hero and the villain in this analogy, but there is a right answer.)

On the surface, the game itself won’t matter all that much. Marie-Philip Poulin, the best player in the world, is out with a lower-body injury sustained yesterday. Both teams will easily qualify for the quarterfinals, and there are no byes in the women’s tournament. Assuming both teams run the table in their other games, they’ll finish first and second and won’t cross paths again until the gold-medal game. So, ultimately, this one doesn’t mean much.

Except that it does, because it’s Canada and the U.S. These two teams hate each other and have a history of serving up absolute classics. They’d probably get heated playing Scrabble or pregame soccer two-touch. There’s no such thing as a meaningless loss between them.

And for the record, the losses lately have all been on the Canadian side. The two programs last met late last year in the Rivalry Series, which the Americans swept, including one win in which they scored 10 goals. It’s fair to assume the Canadians remember.

For now, both teams head into action with perfect records in this tournament. Team USA is sitting in the top spot at 3-0, while Canada holds down second at 2-0 (after having a game postponed due to Finland’s norovirus outbreak). Today’s game should essentially clinch first place for the winner. The loser will get to take some notes for next time. And there will be a next time.

We’ll have live coverage of the game right here. You won’t want to miss it.

(Jonathan Nackstrand / Getty Images)

Your Trivia Answer

The three active players with more than 10 career points in the Olympics in the NHL era includes two Russian legends: Evgeni Malkin (15) and Alexander Ovechkin (11 points). The third is from Team Canada: Jonathan Toews, pictured left, who has 11 points.

If you’re wondering, Sidney Crosby, pictured right, has a career total of nine points, making him the leader among players in this year’s tournament. He heads into action sitting one point ahead of Canadian teammate Drew Doughty and Penguins teammate Erik Karlsson of Team Sweden.

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