Oil Prices Spike on US-Iran Tensions. Goldman Says Brace for More Volatility.

Oil is spiking on the latest bout of tensions between the US and Iran, and Goldman Sachs’s top commodities researcher says more volatility may be coming.

Daan Struyven, the bank’s co-head of global commodities research, told CNBC that he thinks the market sees tensions escalating further between the US and Iran, a likely catalyst for price hikes and longer-term volatility. Both US and international oil prices were up about 2% on Thursday.

“Both prediction markets and oil markets are pricing some near-term moderate escalation as the base case,” he said.

One area in focus is the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway in the Middle East that handles 20% of both the global oil and liquified natural gas supplies.

Struyven highlighted the passage’s importance for international oil flows, adding that Goldman’s base case assumes shipping through the strait will continue and that his team is not anticipating any long-term disruptions.

However, Iran is one of the world’s leading oil suppliers, and its government has made it clear that it intends to retaliate if President Donald Trump moves forward with his threats against it. This could mean attempting to block or restrict access to the Strait of Hormuz, throttling supply.

If this were to curtail flows by 1 million barrels per day for an entire year, Struyven predicted that would justify an $8 per barrel price increase, a roughly 11% jump from Thursday’s price for Brent crude around $71.50. However, he also noted that fear among traders could push prices even higher, adding to the volatility in the market.

“Markets are continuously reassessing, not only the base case, but especially the probability of this tail risk of large oil disruptions in the Middle East,” he said.

Oil prices have risen this year after tumbling throughout 2025. The volatility in energy markets follows bouts of volatility related to the US attack on Venezuela in January and continued saber-rattling on Iran.