A ‘head over heels’ relationship between a tech titan and an AI startup that began over six years ago is turning sour. Microsoft and OpenAI’s pact powered the startup’s artificial intelligence engine to build generative pre-trained models and de-aged the software maker for the AI era.
Now — after cumulative investments swelling to $13 billion — the couple is battling between mutual reliance and burgeoning autonomy. This recalibration carries weighty implications for both firms.
Recent reports suggest Microsoft is prepared to halt discussions over the future contours of its OpenAI alliance if disagreements on critical terms — like Microsoft’s future equity stake — persist. The Windows software maker would then rely on its existing commercial contract, ensuring access to OpenAI’s technology until 2030.This marks a potential inflexion point in a relationship that saw Microsoft’s capital and cloud infrastructure propel OpenAI to the vanguard of AI.
Heart of the matter
At the heart of the current negotiations are fundamental differences in strategic outlook. OpenAI has been overtly seeking to lessen its dependency on Microsoft for cloud computing, a move underscored by new partnerships. Notably, OpenAI finalised a deal in May to use Google Cloud’s infrastructure, a significant step to diversify its computing resources beyond Microsoft’s Azure —its current exclusive provider. It has also partnered with CoreWeave and is exploring arrangements with Oracle as part of Project Stargate to further expand its compute capacity. Such diversification provides OpenAI with technical alternatives and, presumably, greater negotiating leverage.
The shifting personal ties between the firms’ leaders, Satya Nadella of Microsoft and Sam Altman of OpenAI, mirror these corporate recalibrations. Once in near-constant communication, with Mr. Nadella reportedly texting Mr. Altman five or six times a day, their interactions have become more formalised, primarily consisting of scheduled weekly calls, per news reports.
This devolution from spontaneous chats to structured exchange began after Mr. Altman’s brief ousting from OpenAI in late 2023 — an event that led Mr. Nadella to rearchitect his company’s AI future. While Mr. Nadella backed Mr. Altman, the Microsoft CEO also made his controversial decision to bring DeepMind’s Mustafa Suleyman on board. At that point, Mr. Suleyman was running Inflection AI. And as part of the deal, the entire team at Inflection AI joined the software maker.
Despite these undercurrents, public pronouncements remained diligently choreographed. Earlier this year, Mr. Altman posted a picture with Mr. Nadella on X, announcing the next phase of their partnership to be “much better” than anyone is ready for. Mr. Nadella echoed the optimistic sentiment. Such displays were aimed at reassuring investors amidst intricate private negotiations and mounting competition from other AI players, as well as increasing regulatory scrutiny globally.
A pivotal point
A pivotal point of disagreement between the duo is OpenAI’s corporate structure. In May, OpenAI announced it would restructure into a Public Benefit Corporation (PBC), while keeping its non-profit parent in control, retaining the authority to appoint board members . This was a significant shift from earlier considerations of a more conventional for-profit transition that might have diluted the non-profit’s oversight and authority.
The move, amidst criticism from OpenAI early investor and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, was aimed to better align its operational structure with its stated mission of developing AI for humanity’s benefit, while still attracting substantial investment.
This restructuring requires Microsoft’s assent as a key stakeholder — with the tech giant having provided billions of dollars in funding. Microsoft is said to be negotiating the size of its own potential stake in this new PBC, with discussions reportedly ranging from 20% to 49%. Failure to finalise this restructuring by year-end could jeopardise funding from other investors, including a significant investment from SoftBank.
Broader AI strategy
Microsoft, for its part, is not standing still. Its AI strategy is visibly broadening beyond its OpenAI relationship. At its Build 2025 conference, Microsoft showcased integrations of models from Anthropic and Musk’s xAI, signalling a move towards a more diversified AI portfolio. The company is also developing its own smaller, in-house models, like Phi-4, to reduce costs and reliance on any single provider for its Copilot services.
This reflects a growing confidence in its proprietary capabilities and a desire to offer a wider range of AI tools on its Azure platform. Indeed, Microsoft’s ability to leverage its existing agreement with OpenAI until 2030 offers it strategic latitude.
But the evolving Microsoft-OpenAI dynamic unfolds against a fiercely competitive AI landscape. Both entities are balancing the fruits of their collaboration against the imperatives of strategic independence and market differentiation. Microsoft’s potential willingness to pause talks and OpenAI’s multi-cloud strategy both signal a relationship that is turning sour.
The denouement of these negotiations will not only chart the future courses of the two firms but also establish significant precedents for partnerships, governance, and commercialisation in the rapidly maturing AI domain. The relationship, once a lodestar for AI collaboration, now offers a salient lesson in managing the intricate dance of shared ambition and diverging paths in an industry perpetually remaking itself.
Published – June 20, 2025 02:51 pm IST
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