Oversold Conditions Spark Short Covering in Sugar Futures

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Friday closed up +0.15 (+1.05%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) closed up +1.70 (+0.41%).

Sugar prices settled higher on Friday after a three-week slide pushed prices into oversold territory, sparking technical short covering in sugar futures.

Sugar prices have been under pressure in recent weeks, and on Thursday, NY sugar posted a 5-year nearest-futures low and London sugar posted a 4.75-year low, mainly due to higher sugar output in Brazil and talk of a global sugar surplus.  Last Tuesday, Datagro projected that Brazil’s Center-South 2026/27 sugar production will climb +3.9% y/y to a record 44 MMT.  In related news, BMI Group on October 13 projected a global 2025/26 sugar surplus of 10.5 MMT, and Covrig Analytics on October 7 projected a global 2025/26 sugar surplus of 4.1 MMT.

Higher sugar output in Brazil is undercutting prices after Unica on Thursday reported that Brazil’s Center-South sugar output in the first half of October rose by +1.3% y/y to 2.484 MT.  Also, the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills in the first half of October increased to 48.24% from 47.33% the same time last year.  In addition, cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through mid-October rose +0.9% y/y to 36.016 MMT.

The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is negative for sugar prices, as abundant monsoon rains may produce a bumper sugar crop.  On September 30, India’s Meteorological Department reported that cumulative monsoon rainfall as of that date was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, marking the strongest monsoon in five years.  On June 2, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would climb +19% y/y to 34.9 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage.  That would follow a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar production in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).

Another bearish factor for sugar was the recent assertion from sugar trader Sucden that India may divert only 4 MMT of sugar to make ethanol in 2025/26, which is not enough to ease the country’s sugar surplus and may prompt India’s sugar mills to export as much as 4 MMT of sugar, above earlier expectations of 2 MMT.  India is the world’s second-largest producer of sugar.

The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for prices.  The Thai Sugar Millers Corp on October 1 projected that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar crop will increase by +5% y/y to 10.5 MMT.  On May 2, Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar production rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT.  Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter.

The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasted a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season on August 29, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits.  ISO projects a global 2025/26 sugar deficit of -231,000 MT, down from the -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25.  ISO also projects that 2025/26 global sugar production will rise by +3.3% y/y to 180.6 MMT, and 2025/26 global sugar consumption will increase by +0.3% y/y to 180.8 MMT.

The USDA, in its bi-annual report released May 22, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would climb +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 MMT and that global 2025/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y/y to a record 177.921 MMT.  The USDA also forecast that 2025/26 global sugar ending stocks would climb by +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT.  The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar production would rise by 2.3% y/y to a record 44.7 MMT.  FAS also predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would increase by 25% y/y to 35.3 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage.  In addition, FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar production will increase by +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com