Paolo Banchero had his fingerprints on the end of the Orlando Magic’s game against the Phoenix Suns on Saturday.
With the team trailing by six in the final three minutes, Banchero began to assert himself and make a difference for his team, pushing him and the team back into the game. He made only one shot in that short comeback, but it was a big one.
Banchero became the bulldozer the Magic know he can be. Getting the ball near mid-court and immediately attacking the hoop. He powered his way past Royce O’Neale as two defenders tried to crowd him too late. He forced the ball into the basket to make it a four-point game. Banchero added a block and an assist as the Magic forced overtime.
In overtime, he scored on a step-through move to the rim to give the Magic a five-point lead and spun off his man in the post to tie the game late in the first overtime.
If Orlando unlocked something in Banchero during his 26-point, 14-rebound, 8-assist effort against Phoenix, it was getting him the ball in the post and near the basket. It was that Banchero was aggressive, trying to get to the basket and not settling for jumpers.
For all the talk of Banchero being inefficient and settling for jumpers, he has made his living this year around the rim, taking more shots in the paint and at the basket than at any time in his career.
But that is the difference too. The one stat has defined his season is that he is shooting much worse in the paint this season. And that is where many of his struggles this season have come.
Things are not adding up for Banchero, particularly at key junctures in the game.
As much as Banchero took over parts of the game against the Suns, he also missed a layup for the lead with 12.5 seconds left in regulation and missed another go-ahead baseline jumper with 24 seconds left in overtime. The ball is in his hands, and he is expected to finish.
That speaks to how close Banchero might be to his breakthrough. But also, how so much of it is small margins and things that the Magic need Banchero to excel at.
The problem at the rim
Paolo Banchero’s jump-shooting issues are well-documented. He has struggled to hit the kind of mid-range shots that star players are expected to hit and can keep defenses honest.
Those who have been eager to knock Banchero down a few pegs have cited his poor pull-up shooting numbers with glee.
But Banchero is taking far fewer mid-range jumpers than ever before this season — he is shooting 34.2 percent on 2.7 mid-range jumpers per game compared to 41.7 percent on 4.7 mid-range jumpers per game last year.
Instead, Banchero is doing a lot more work around the basket.
This season, Banchero is shooting 65.7 percent on 5.2 attempts per game in the restricted area. Last year, Banchero was at 66.1 percent on 5.3 attempts per game. In his 2024 All-Star season, Banchero made 64.2 percent on 5.2 attempts per game.
That is not a meaningful difference. Banchero is at the rim and shooting around the rim as much as ever. He was three for three at the rim in Saturday’s loss.
Where Banchero struggled was everywhere else in the paint, making only 8 of 18. That is indicative of his season as a whole.
Banchero is shooting 39.1 percent on 4.3 field goal attempts per game in the paint outside the restricted area this season. Last year, he was at 41.3 percent on 3.9 attempts per game. And in 2024 he was at 39.1 percent on 3.8 attempts per game.
It is again not a huge jump, but it is a jump. If Banchero can turn those short jumpers into layups, that would greatly improve his efficiency.
But this is an area that Banchero has not taken a necessary leap. It is rim or bust for Banchero, it seems. Especially considering how often he drives to the hoop
Banchero shoots 43.8 percent (and has 0.8 assists per game) off a team-high 12.8 drives per game this year, according to data from Second Spectrum. Last year, he was at 49.8 percent shooting on 11.9 drives per game. In 2024, he was at 43.7 percent on 12.7 drives per game.
Banchero is doing the right things. He is attacking the basket more and settling for jumpers less. But his finishing in the paint has taken a slide back. And with all the other areas he has struggled, that has led to his seeming downturn.
Signs of improvement?
But there are plenty of signs of improvement. Banchero is starting to put up better overall numbers more consistently.
Banchero is averaging 21.6 points per game and shooting 45.2 percent from the floor (the same percentage as last year). He is shooting 31.6 percent from three, but taking a career-low 3.8 attempts per game. He is getting to the line for 7.8 free throw attempts per game (getting only four was a major frustration in Saturday’s loss).
For all the talk of his inefficiency, Banchero is averaging a career-best 55.7 percent true shooting percentage.
That is an improvement in name only. It is still among the worst among players with a 25 percent usage rate and 25 minutes per game.
But since Jan. 1, Banchero is averaging 23.1 points per game with 46.2/39.5/78.3 shooting splits. He has a 57.2 percent true shooting percentage, the 15th-worst mark in the league among players with a usage rate of 25 percent and 25 minutes per game. But it is better than notable players like Cade Cunningham, Pascal Siakam and Jaylen Brown.
Since Jan. 1, too, Banchero is shooting 61.6 percent on 6.0 attempts per game in the restricted area. He is still struggling with jumpers, shooting 36.8 percent on 4.1 attempts per game in the paint outside the restricted area.
But Banchero is pushing his way to the basket more and making those shots far more effectively. That has led to this awakening.
There is still something intangible missing with Banchero’s season. He will need to hit even short jumpers more consistently. And knowing when to take those shots and taking over games remains a challenge for him this season.
But it is clear how turning around his shooting at the rim has created a huge boost.
