Analysts at Wall Street brokerage Bernstein say it won’t be long before Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: $HOOD) is earning more revenue from its prediction market than crypto trading.
In a note to clients, Bernstein raised its price target on HOOD stock to $160 U.S. from $130 U.S. and reiterated a buy-equivalent outperform rating on the shares.
The raised price target is based on the growth of Robinhood’s prediction market, as well as a generational shift in how retail investors trade.
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Analyst Gautam Chhugani said Robinhood is likely to benefit from $70 billion U.S. of trading on prediction markets, perpetual futures contracts, and tokenized equities.
However, the biggest catalyst for Robinhood is likely to come from its prediction market, according to Bermstein.
Already, Robinhood’s prediction market is large enough to rival trading in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (CRYPTO: $BTC), says Bernstein.
Going forward, Chhugani expects Robinhood to grow its annual prediction market revenue at a 64% compound annual rate through 2028, reaching $1.7 billion U.S.
At that point, Robinhood should be generating more revenue from its prediction market than crypto trading, says the analyst.
Robinhood’s prediction market got a big boost from this year’s FIFA World Cup, which accounted for 93% of trading volumes in June and early July.
Robinhood’s prediction market became the fourth largest by trading volume within a month of its launch, notes Bernstein.
At the same time, the brokerage has lowered its 2026 crypto trading revenue estimate by 49%, citing softer-than-expected trading volumes with Bitcoin’s price stuck below $65,000 U.S.
Prediction markets let people bet on the outcome of real-world events such as sports contests and political elections. The sector is dominated by Kalshi and Polymarket.
HOOD stock has declined 12% this year to trade at $100.99 U.S. per share.
