Saint Mary’s Gael at Pacific Tigers prediction, pick for NCAAM on Saturday 2/14/26

Helping to close down a loaded Saturday of college basketball, the Saint Mary’s Gaels will face the Pacific Tigers in a WCC conference battle. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET.

These teams currently sit in third and fourth place in the West Coast Conference standings. Both sides have had respectable starts to their year, and this will be an intriguing measuring stick matchup for each.

Looking at the odds, Saint Mary’s enters as a 7.5-point favorite with -360 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Pacific holds +285 odds of winning outright, and the game total is set at 135.5 points.

Saint Mary’s at Pacific prediction, preview

Saint Mary’s holds a 22-4 record on the season and is 11-2 in conference play. Its four losses have come against Vanderbilt, Boise State, Santa Clara and Gonzaga. The Gaels enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak and have won 13 of their last 15. On the season, Saint Mary’s is 15-10 against the spread, with no odds offered for the matchup with DII UC Merced, and the game total is 12-13 to the over/under.

Paulius Murauskas headlines the production with 18.7 points per game, along with 7.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists. Joshua Dent adds 13.1 points and 5.7 assists while leading the conference with 35.6 minutes per game. Mikey Lewis is the lone other player to average in double figures, adding 12.8 points, 2.7 rebounds and 2.1 assists. Andrew McKeever pulls down a WCC-leading 9.5 rebounds per game along with his 8.5 points, while Dillan Shaw, Liam Campbell, Harry Wessels and Tony Duckett round out most of the notable rotation.

Saint Mary’s scores 78.8 points per game, which ranks 120th in the country. It also ranks 49th in offensive rating, 109th in field-goal percentage, 11th in three-point percentage and 28th in rebounds per game. On the other end, the Gaels are holding opponents to the ninth-fewest points at 64.9 per game. They rank 17th in defensive rating, 23rd in opponent field-goal percentage and 23rd in opponent three-point percentage.

The Pacific Tigers enter with a 17-10 record on the season and are 8-6 in conference play. They enter this matchup coming off back-to-back wins over Pepperdine and Loyola Marymount, but dropped matchups to San Francisco and Santa Clara before that. On the season, Pacific is 13-11-1 against the spread, with its opening matchup against Life Pacific not offering odds, and the game total is 9-14-2 to the over/under.

Elias Ralph is the team’s leading scorer with averages of 16.6 points and 6.7 rebounds per game while shooting 39.8% on three-point attempts. TJ Wainwright adds 13.9 points and 3.8 rebounds and shoots 39.6% on perimeter looks as the only other player averaging in double figures. Isaac Jack adds 9.5 points and 5.6 rebounds, while Justin Rochelin is posting averages of 9.4 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.0 steal per game. Jaden Clayton, Kajus Kublickas and Jaion Pitt also play key roles in the rotation.

As a team, Pacific is averaging 74.7 points per game, which ranks 225th in the country. It ranks 137th in offensive rating, 52nd in field-goal percentage and 51st in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 68.0 points per game, which ranks 45th in the country. Pacific also ranks 75th in defensive rating, 23rd in opponent field-goal percentage and 168th in opponent three-point percentage.

Saint Mary’s at Pacific pick, best bet

Both these teams are excellent defensively, and my lean is toward the under, even with the 135.5-point game total being low. However, I am backing Saint Mary’s to get the victory and cover the 7.5-point spread.

Pacific is a good story with the program already notching its most wins in a season since 2019-20, and the team deserves credit for playing well overall, but there is still a gap in talent between these two teams. The Gaels have faced a tougher schedule to this point and have looked better on both sides of the ball. The Gaels’ 38.8% three-point percentage as a team will also be problematic against a Pacific team that ranks 172nd in three-point attempts allowed per game and 168th in opponent efficiency. In contrast, Saint Mary’s is holding opponents to the 23rd-worst three-point percentage and ranks in the top 100 for 3PA allowed.

Pacific has struggled to score the ball in any matchup, and this will especially be the case against a Saint Mary’s team that can completely stifle you. The Gaels play a connected brand of basketball on this side of the ball that involves plenty of trapping, rotating effectively and rebounding at a high rate. Pacific also has struggles turning the ball over, and this is an area that Saint Mary’s will be ready to exploit.

Expect this matchup to remain close in the early stages of the game in a low-scoring matchup. However, there is a higher level of identity and discipline on this Saint Mary’s team that will be the difference. Count on the Gaels cutting off the Pacific attack and having success against its poor defense for the path to be paved for the Gaels to cover the 7.5-point number.

Best Bet: Saint Mary’s -7.5 (-115)